You've probably seen Ukraine's statistics that the number of new diseases, and new deaths, and the percentage of occupancy of Covid-beds in the hospital are falling. All this can be attributed to incorrect statistics, so as not to raise a panic before the new year, but...
- All the polls that I conducted earlier and that were carried out on the network by other people show that more than 20-30% of Ukrainians have been ill. Some show more than 50% with official statistics just over 2%. Is it a lot or a little? And how does this relate to herd immunity?
1.1. There is a direct mathematical formula for the definition of herd immunity:
- epidemiologists estimate the proportion of the population that needs to gain immunity before herd immunity is triggered;
- this threshold depends on the main number of reproductive, R 0 - the number of cases, on average, generated by one infected person in a fully susceptible, well-mixed population;
- the formula for calculating the herd immunity threshold: 1-1 / R 0 - this means that the more people become infected by each person who has the virus, the higher the proportion of the population that must have immunity to achieve herd immunity;
- herd immunity figures for Covid-19 range from 85% in Bahrain, with an Rt of 6.64, to 5.66% in Kuwait, where the Rt was 1.06.
Kuwait's low performance reflects the fact that it is taking many measures to combat the virus, such as imposing local curfews and banning commercial flights from many countries.
For example, to overcome the flu, a herd immunity of at least 40% is needed. Covid is more dangerous than influenza due to its higher spread.
1.2. If in January-February, without the introduction of quarantine, the number of cases continues to decline, it can be assumed that collective immunity is already forming in Ukraine and many more people have been ill than is reflected in the statistics.
If earlier WHO removed the concept of "pandemic" from its terminology (Covid did not fall under the previous definitions), today WHO has changed the definition of herd immunity.
2.1. From a new WHO text: "Herd immunity," also known as "population immunity," is indirect protection against an infectious disease that occurs when a population has immunity either through vaccination (!) or through immunity developed as a result of a previous infection...
WHO supports the achievement of "herd immunity" through vaccination (!) and not by spreading the disease (!) among any segment of the population, as this can lead to unnecessary cases of illness and death.
2.2 So, back to old questions about WHO engagement:
- What role do donors play in WHO's policy setting?
- What is the role of WHO specialists in imposing mandatory vaccination?
Think of the old swine flu scandal and conflict of interest at WHO.
Then the responsible WHO officer who recommended a number of measures turned out to be a contract employee of one of the pharmaceutical companies.
What has changed today?
- Passport of the vaccinated. Do you already have it?
A new restriction on people's freedoms is being introduced. If you want to move around freely, whether you are ill or not, you need it! It is issued by the WHO.
The Yellow Card, or Carte Jaune, is a medical passport issued by the World Health Organization. It is an official document that is required to enter some countries and can document vaccinations against diseases (formerly from cholera and yellow fever to childhood diseases such as rubella, today from Covid-19).
In October 2020, WHO signed an agreement with Estonia to create a digital vaccination certificate.
In particular, the Australian airline Qantas has already announced that it will start requiring coronavirus vaccinations for all passengers on its international flights.
In the United States, vaccine recipients receive a small white card, the Covid-19 vaccination card, which documents the vaccination.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is promoting a vaccine passport called the IATA Travel Pass.
The World Economic Forum and the Swiss non-profit group Commons Project Foundation are testing a digital passport of immunity called CommonPass. This is a system that will allow travelers to access laboratory results and vaccination records, as well as consent to the use of this information to confirm their Covid-19 status.
In late 2020, IDEMIA, an online identity management company, unveiled a broader technology solution called Augmented Borders that will allow you to scan a chip in your passport and use your mobile phone as a proxy passport.
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