The second round of elections of the president of Ukraine ended, and we have got the winner – Volodymyr Zelensky. Many spoke and wrote about him, although, unfortunately, he preferred to keep silence until the debates. Thus, no one could predict what kind of policy Zelensky would carry out, one could only guess.
So what should we expect from president Zelensky?
Apparently, we should start from the presidential program of Volodymyr Zelensky, which begins with the words “I will tell you about Ukraine of my dreams”. He wants Ukraine to be a country where business "can be officially established in an hour, you can get a passport in 15 minutes, and vote in elections in one second."
According to Zelensky, doctors and teachers get real wages, corrupt officials - real penalties and retired people get a decent retirement. However, there is nothing about how he is going to achieve this. The president of Ukraine does not have the power to interfere directly to the payment process of pension and salaries. In Ukraine it is the presidentially-parliamentary form of government, in other words, the powers of the head of state are rather limited. The most important role of the president is foreign policy.
Regarding that plank in the program, here are some main points: For instance, to finish the war in Donbas, to return the temporarily occupied territories to Ukraine, to make Russia compensate damages. Zelensky is not against NATO and the European Union, he believes in this, although this issue should receive confirmation through an all-Ukrainian referendum.
Candidate’s first bill will be called "On power of people." The essence of the draft law described in the program is as follows: consolidation of the mechanism by which "the people of Ukraine will form the main tasks for the government through referendums and other forms of direct democracy." Besides, he promises to do everything with the maximum use of the latest technologies, but there are no details on how he is going to that.
In addition, Zelensky promises to lift immunity from the president of Ukraine, MPs, and judges.
You can read about the program more detailed here.
Volodymyr Zelensky gave more information in his interview. For example, he said he was not against abortions, as everyone should decide by themselves. He is not against the legalization of medical marijuana. But the President does not support the legalization of weapons.
Surely, no one can predict what will happen next. However, there are several variants of the turn of events, foreseen by analysts both Ukrainian and foreign ones. Those variants are completely different.
Thus, some experts believe that Zelensky should start with:
-Settling down the conflict in Donbas, returning Crimea, in particular, while strengthening the Normandy format with the accession of the USA and the UK. However, no one agrees to the direct dialogue with leaders of the temporarily occupied territories.
- The reform of the Presidential Administration. Zelensky’s team believes that the Administration of the President should be an office of the body suggesting new ideas.
- To conduct an audit of Ukraine with the help of international experts.
Nevertheless, any bill risks being disapproved by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. Whether Zelensky will gain a majority in the parliament is still a tricky question.
Many questions appear concerning his foreign policy. Zelensky met with French President Emmanuel Macron, French Ambassador in Ukraine Isabelle Dumont and Resident Representative for Ukraine Goesta Ljungman. Zelensky claimed that all the meetings had been successful ones. However, only time will show how good Zelensky is in diplomacy.
Besides, the head of state is not obliged to participate in all those procedures himself. Many tasks can be fulfilled by the good ministers and smart advisors provided Zelensky hires competent stuff. Nevertheless, the search of those brilliant workers is a rather difficult mission as well, which requires experience. And this is one more task Zelensky should do as the President of Ukraine.
Obviously, there are absolutely negative predictions as well. In general, they all touch upon the fact that Zelensky is not only a political novice, but also that he depends completely on his patron billionaire Ihor Kolomoysky. Their claims that they have no relations to each other have not convinced skeptics at all. Some analysts believe that his coming in the office is far from cleaning Ukrainian politics from the systems of billionaires, as Zelensky’s ‘patron’ plays the big part in those systems. According to some experts, even if Zelensky wants to become an independent president indeed, he will have not enough power to do so. Without his own political power in parliament, which at present Zelensky does not have, he will need figures like Kolomoysky for making all important decisions.
In addition, some experts predict the step back in the economy of Ukraine, if the nationalization of the Privatbank to be canceled.
There are even those, who think that Zelensky will be in the office not longer than a year and a half. Basically, the reason for this is that he has no experience in economics, diplomacy or military.
Anyway, experts and analysts may dispute a lot, but only time will show who is right.