Ukraine needs to get used to the new faces of Ukrainian politics. As a rule, these are “over-the-shoulder” players, that is, those who stood behind the wide backs of bureaucratic figures that had gone into oblivion. The domestic oligarchs and the lobby of the investment bankers had a good bench.
The current presidential faction would receive a new leader in the fall. Most likely, it would become David Arahamia. A few days ago, he announced the next shortlist of nominees for the post of the prime minister, which is somewhat different from the previous one published by journalists.
A month ago, the Atlantic Council announced the names of five candidates for the post of prime minister in Ukraine:
1) Vladyslav Rashkovan, former deputy head of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) at the time of Valeria Gontareva, current IMF functionary
2) Andriy Kobolev, Chairman of the Board of Naftogaz
3) Yuriy Vitrenko, top manager of Naftogaz
4) Oleksandr Danyliuk, Minister of Finance in Groysman-Poroshenko’s Cabinet
5) Aivaras Abromavicius, former Minister of Economy of the Government of Yatsenyuk.
Then, after reading this list, one could only think that some drunken political scientist wrote it just on a napkin of some Kyiv restaurant. Or it was a kind of “anonymous letter” launched in the media to create the necessary political veil with the aim of covertly promoting other candidates.
As representatives of the Ze-team recently said, we would live in an era of enlightened libertarianism s: without same-sex marriages (for now) and legalized marijuana (who knows), but most likely with deep desocialization of the country, which, according to the Constitution, is still a social state.
Indeed, otherwise, we would have the wrong kind of libertarianism. In general, while the civilized world is becoming more comfortable, economic policy in Ukraine risks falling into the format of the Wild West of the 19th century. When you have 12 million pensioners and 7 million full-time workers in your country, the Libertarian model means only one thing: only those, who have political support, would be saved. Managed chaos is an ideal environment for removing corrupt rents and functioning of the rental, corruption model of the economy. For example, opening a land market in the interests of the lobby of investment bankers who have long settled on our African “investment” format: their parties with “new faces”, control of government debts (and, in the future – land and infrastructure).
And a few days ago, a new shortlist appeared. It contains four names of candidates for the prime minister’s office. According to the number of applicants, Naftogaz representatives are the most numerous. Naftogaz has delegated two top officials: Yuriy Vitrenko and Andriy Kobolev. Vitrenko’s mom (leader of the Progressive Socialist Party of Ukraine, - ed.)will have nothing against the IMF and the "killer’s tariffs." As for the second one, his mom would not get the regular bonuses (Kobolev sent his money to his mom in the US, - ed.), for example, for extending the contract with Russian Gazprom. Seriously, these candidates might indicate a high probability of occurrence of extremely toxic events for our economy in the future.
Arahamia noted that each candidate is expected to receive proposals on key performance indicators (KPI). According to him, the basic KPI should be economic growth - GDP dynamics at 5%.
The topic with KPI in relation to Vitrenko and Kobolev is very interesting. The latter has already had some individual goals in a personal contract with the Cabinet. For example, the possibility of retaining the position of the head of Naftogaz was directly linked to the carrying out separation of the functions of gas production, transportation, and sale. The KPI indicator itself, in the form of GDP growth dynamics, is very convenient for the future government: in 2019, you can ascribe growth to yourself, and assign the decrease to the “successors”.
Arahamia also named Vladyslav Rashkovan as a candidate, who, together with Valeria Gontareva, reformed our banking system, so successfully that he got a position in the IMF leadership. Now, in the light of the departure from the IMF, Christine Lagarde and the strengthening of China’s influence in the fund, he urgently needs to “change his shoes.”
The fourth candidate is Oleksiy Goncharuk, a well-known lawyer, responsible for the economic bloc in the President’s Office.
In past years, he worked as a managing partner of a law firm that provided services in the field of financing real estate construction, and then - led the All-Ukrainian Association for Assistance to Affected Investors. He probably knows that the best way how to lead the "process." The appointment of Goncharuk will mean that the storm in the vastness of the world economy and the tsunami wave in our direction is being postponed and we can calmly steer a couple of years, not bullying the electorate very much and not bending very deep before the IMF.