Scientists from the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine have concluded that the country has passed the peak incidence of coronavirus and the third wave of the pandemic has declined. This is stated in the reports of the working group on mathematical modeling of problems related to the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus epidemic in Ukraine at the Institute of Problems of Mathematical Machines and Systems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.
"In the last two weeks, the epidemic has been declining by all measures. Compared to peak values, the number of positive PCR tests decreased by 53%, new detections decreased by 30%, hospital beds - by 19%, daily hospitalizations decreased by 30%, mortality - by 9%. The peak of mortality was passed later: on November 8-12, 2021," the statement reads.
The decrease in morbidity is observed in all regions of Ukraine, except for Zakarpattia and Kirovohrad regions.
The average number of new cases of coronavirus in Ukraine has decreased to 15,484 people per day, the average number of deaths is 619 deaths per day on average over the last week.
According to forecasts, the average number of new cases will be 13,830 (SEIR_U methodology) or 13,053 (Prophet methodology) during the week of 24-30 November 2021, and 11,377 (SEIR_U) or 10,284 (Prophet) during the week of 1-7 December 2021.
A preliminary analysis of excessive mortality showed that the overall mortality from Covid-19-related causes during the entire period of the epidemic in Ukraine was 2.15 times higher than the registered mortality from this disease.
The observed mortality remained close to 3% (2.7% according to incomplete data 4-5 weeks ago and 3.2% according to the operative assessment), but Hospital mortality increased to a new maximum - 21%.
When estimating the age of hospitalized according to MedData, the estimated level of effectiveness of vaccines against hospitalization for certain age groups is from 84% to 92% for full vaccination.
As it was reported, head of the Center for Health Economics of the Kyiv School of Economics Yuri Hanychenko stated that new Covid-19 cases are expected to rise in January 2022 unless a lockdown is introduced, which this year helped delay the coronavirus wave until mid-February.
According to the researcher, it is too early to say that Ukraine has passed the peak incidence of the autumn wave Covid-19.
Also, according to him, as of November 23, we can already talk about the current peak of mortality in Ukraine; it is about 650 people on average per day.