In Ukraine, the peak mortality from coronavirus infection is likely to occur in early May. This result was obtained by the working group on mathematical modeling of problems associated with the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus epidemic.
This data is reported by Strana outlet with reference to the Glavkom article.
The forecast can be justified provided that quarantine measures will be continued in the same volume as now. In this case, the peak values of new cases of virus infection will be reached on May 2-5, and the peak of deaths on May 3-8.
After reaching the peak incidence, the number of new infections will decline until the end of May.
Igor Brovchenko, deputy director of the Institute of Problems of Mathematical Machines and Systems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, explained on Facebook that the document is not a report, but rather an informational message, a short excerpt from the forecast. In addition, he said, "the work is not completed (and will not be soon), working materials with a description of the methodology, equations, references, calibrations, etc. are prepared with the help of all members of the working group."
According to the Public Health Center of Ukraine center, 261 cases were detected in the country per day. The number of deaths is 151, another 359 people recovered.