The Parliamentary Election Day is coming, and on July 21 we are going to vote for MPs in the Verkhovna Rada.
The voting is absolutely anonymous and no one should not tell anyone about their choice. However, one may be approached to fill in the form to indicate his choice. Both the form and the ballot are anonymous and a voter may refuse to fill it in but may agree to do so as well.
This is the so-called exit poll – the survey at the exit door out of the polling station. It is held firstly to predict the results of the elections before the official ones. Secondly, the exit poll has the monitoring function: differences between the poll and the results of the Central Election Commission of Ukraine (CECU) more than on 4.5% may indicate about electoral fraud, but can’t be perceived as a direct evidence.
During the Presidential Elections of Ukraine three surveys were held simultaneously: the all-Ukrainian Exit Poll which is organized by 112 TV channel, the National Exit Poll, organized by the Ukrainian Centre for Economic and Political Studies named after Oleksandr Razumkov, Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation and Kyiv International Institute of Sociology and the poll organized by the political sociology company SOCIS in cooperation with Committee of Voters of Ukraine Civic Organization (CVU).
What are the features and differences between them?
112 Ukraine Exit Poll
112 Ukraine launched its own exit poll. It is planned to question about 25,000 voters at 500 polling stations all over Ukraine. The common deviation makes 2.4%. The statistical deviations of the results of the exit poll will make 2.1% for the leaders of the rating and not more than 1.5% for other candidates.
The results will be announced during the telethon WHO?, which is going to start at 112 Ukraine TV channel on July 21 at 17:00. The preliminary results will be known after 20:00.
Austrian SORA Institute for Social Research and Consulting along with the Ukrainian Social Monitoring Center will hold the survey of the voter at the exit of the polling stations.
The National Exit Poll
The National exit poll is organized by the Ukrainian Centre for Economic and Political Studies named after Oleksandr Razumkov, Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation and Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. 300 polling stations and 13,000 voters are going to be interviewed. The statistical deviations including design effect will make 1.3% but there are mistakes depended on various factors. According to the previous exit polls, it is expected the sampling error will be not more than 2.5% for the leaders and within 0.5-1% for other candidates.
The results will be published in 7:75 pm as at 6 pm and in 10 pm as at the moment of closing of polling stations.
SOCIS and CVU Exit Poll
Social and marketing research center along with Civic Organization “Committee of voters of Ukraine” (CVU) will hold the social survey as well. On the Election Day about 14,000 voters on the whole territory of Ukraine is planned to be interviewed (except of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and occupied territories of Luhansk and Donetsk regions). 360 polling stations where the research will be held, were randomly chosen in the sample.
The first results of the exit poll will be known in 8 pm on July 21 in the evening. This will be the results as at 6 pm. The final results will be published in 10 pm.
Theoretical deviation makes 1.3%.