We have calculated the cost of the New Year festive table for the Ukrainians.
Up to 175 USD per festive table
It is difficult to accurately calculate the cost of delicacies from the festive table, not only because of the different taste preferences of Ukrainians and their financial capabilities but also because of the spread in the cost of goods on store shelves. For example, olives in Kyiv supermarkets fluctuate in value between 1 and 6 USD, canned corn can be found at both 0,7 and 2,5 USD.
The National Scientific Center "Institute of Agrarian Economics" calculated that the cost of a New Year's table for a family of four members would be 62 USD. However, according to our own calculations, the amount may be even higher and, depending on the volume of purchased delicacies, reach 80 USD.
Experts have calculated that, in general, the New Year's table is 5.3% more expensive than in 2019, which corresponds to the very moderate inflation set in the budget for this year. Economic experts agree that retail chains will definitely arrange sales and promotions in order to increase the volume of sales of products accumulated in warehouses due to low demand.
Record affordable salads
The most popular New Year's dishes this year will delight you with diplomatic prices. This is due to the fact that prices for vegetables fell by 17% over the year, and for eggs - by 4.5%. A large number of Ukrainians, especially in regions remote from the regional centers, stock up on vegetables for future use: in particular, potatoes, sauerkraut, and other conservations.
"Prices are practically the same as they were last year, but for a whole group of goods, for the so-called borshch index or beetroot soup set index (potatoes, cabbage, carrots, onions, beets), are 15-20% lower than last year. Therefore, vinaigrettes will become cheaper. The demand for vegetables is not foreseen, as the number of people preparing for the winter has increased significantly. People are increasingly stocking up on sacks of potatoes instead of buying a kilo or two in the supermarket. So during the pandemic, moments that were inherent in Ukraine in the nineties began to appear," economic expert Oleh Pendzin says.
According to the forecasts of Ivan Tomich, President of the Association of Farmers and Landowners, the positive trend regarding the "borscht index" products will last at least until March.
New Year's number one dish Olivier
Based on the value of this dish, the so-called Olivier index is also calculated. This is the ratio of the cost of the products needed to prepare the salad this year and last year. Such an index is clearer and simpler for the consumer, in contrast to the inflation index. Although from the point of view of the economy, of course, it is impossible to take it seriously. The indicator is also calculated because the State Statistics Service does not always give true prices: often statisticians give prices that have not been in supermarkets for a long time.
According to our calculations, last year a kilogram of salad could be prepared for 2,5 USD, so there is an increase in the cost of 8.4% due to the rise in price of sausage. Economic analysts call a more significant price increase of 13.8%.
"Olivier will rise in price at a minimum: perhaps, perhaps due to the fact that the meat has grown by 1.5-2%, and due to mayonnaise, which also rose in price by about 3%," Penzin points out.
If we take into account the growth of household incomes for the year by at least 13% (up to 430 USD per month), Olivier this year has become even more affordable for Ukrainians than it was in the past. Last year, experts also noted that the cost of the dish has decreased. According to economic expert Oleksandr Okhrimenko's estimates, in 2016 a Ukrainian could afford 72 kg of salad for an average salary, in 2018 - 90 kg of lettuce, in 2019 - 124 kg, and this time - about 130 kg.
Based on which food prices are showing an upward trend, savings can be made by using more carrots and eggs and fewer potatoes and sausages.
According to one of the food delivery services, a purchased Olivier will cost on average about 12 USD per kg. The most expensive dish is in the capital, Vinnytsia, Dnipro, Kharkiv – 15-17 USD. The cheapest prices are in Rivne and Ivano-Frankivsk – 5,8 USD.
A dressed herring, according to our calculations, will cost about 1,2 USD per kg (in 2019 - 1,1 USD). Fish almost did not change in price over the year (+ 2.3%) and should not rise in price by the holidays. Aspic will cost about 3,2 USD. As for conservation, it is better to buy it at the last moment. You can take advantage of promotions by purchasing peas and corn.
In contrast to pork and lamb, which did not rise in price during the year, veal, beef and sausages rose in price. In theory, suppliers should have dropped the prices of these goods, but most likely they will rely on demand closer to the holidays, so the price will not change.
You don't have to buy chicken in advance: it may even, on the contrary, become cheaper due to the growing demand for sausages. The National Association of Meat Producers confirms that chicken has already dropped in price.
On boiled sausages in the last week before the holidays, a discount is definitely guaranteed, so you should postpone the purchase of the product until the last moment. If, closer to the holiday, retail chains do not please with discounts on this product, experts advise replacing it with baked chicken or turkey – this will be even more useful.
The traditional product for Ukrainians, lard, according to Ivan Tomich, this year has risen in price by 20-25%, which will also affect the festive table.
In general, almost all experts advise buying hard cheese and butter in advance on shares. They rose in price inflationary and in the future will increase in price. You can also save money if you cook several dishes from one product. Olivier can be made from the meat that remains from the preparation of the rest of the dish.
Experts are divided on delicacies. Some say that red caviar will be the most significantly more expensive product: not only because of increased demand but also because of other objective factors. In Russia and Alaska, the catch is falling, so the price per kilogram will be about 53 USD instead of 32 USD. Moreover, it is believed that manufacturers will try to cope with this situation through marketing: the jars will simply be reduced in volume.
“We have become a little poorer, therefore, there is so much imported product on our tables. Perhaps not everyone will allow themselves red caviar to the table or allow it in a smaller amount,” Oleh Pendzin is sure.
Olives and olives, quality cheeses should fall in price closer to the holiday.
Sweets, fruits, and alcohol
Setting the table with these goodies will be much more expensive this year than last. And the upward trend is likely to only intensify.
Before the holidays, sweets will rise in price, especially baked goods. The growth is due to increased excitement and an increase in the price of components.
"The most growing products in price are the three critically important for poor Ukrainian: sugar, butter, and bread. Sugar has increased in price by 50% compared to September. But butter has risen in price by 35%. Bread has risen in price by 12% - and we should expect an increase in price to almost 20%. During the year by September next year I predict the growth of this product by 45-40%," Ivan Tomich emphasizes.
Okhrimenko also agrees with him that the days of cheap bread are over. Farmers are guided by more profitable world markets and do not agree to sell grain cheaper within the country.
Fruits have risen in price the most over the year – by 23%. If last December a kilogram of tangerines cost 1 USD, now the price is 1,2 USD. So not everyone can afford the same amount of citrus as last year.
Trade networks traditionally launch promotions on alcohol, so it is better to buy it closer to the holiday. But stocks will not compensate for the serious rise in prices that affected alcohol this year: it grew in price not by inflationary 5-6%, but by about 20-25%.
However, the products will not be available for so long. Already in 2021, goods will have to rise in price, so the next Olivier should add more in price. Since the government increases the minimum wage, such an increase will be included in the cost of goods and services. If today prices are growing by 5.5-6%, then next year the growth will be 7.5%. There is no reason for panic: this inflation is predicted.
The rise in prices next year is associated with a rise in grain prices by 20%. Not only bakery products and sunflower oil will rise in price, but also meat and milk since grain is also animal feed. Potatoes will be relatively cheap.