The new wave of the coronavirus pandemic can start in Ukraine already by the end of summer if the Covid strain Delta will not be taken under control. It actively circulates in Russia. Such predictions were published by the Institute of Mathematical Machines and Systems Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.
“Considering large amounts of migration from Russia it can be expected that the new wave of Covid-19 spread can start from the east of Ukraine. The time of its arrival mostly depends on the share of Delta strain in Ukraine that is unknown yet. With insufficient control of the international migration and insufficient tempo of vaccination, the new wave can start before autumn,” the scientists note.
Moreover, the experts suppose that the new wave of the Covid-19 pandemic can be higher than the previous, especially, concerning the load on the hospitals.
According to the study, the Delta strain firstly spotted in India has widely spread in Russia: up to a fourth of people infected with coronavirus can be infected with this strain.
That is why; the situation with coronavirus rapidly deteriorates, especially in the largest metropolis of the country – Moscow and St. Petersburg.
It is 1.6 times more contagious than the Alfa strain (firstly discovered in the UK); 2.26 times more often it leads to hospitalization and 1.45 times more often to the resuscitation department. Meanwhile, the effect from the vaccines is mostly kept.
Chief Sanitary Doctor of Ukraine Ihor Kuzin stated that the next wave of coronavirus in Ukraine is expected in autumn.