Latest polls: Which parties have highest chance to get to Ukraine's parliament?

Author : Yaroslav Konoshchuk

The party of Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky is preparing to celebrate its victory in the early parliamentary elections
15:11, 19 July 2019

Open source

The party of Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky is preparing to celebrate its victory in the early parliamentary elections. Opposition Platform - For Life, European Solidarity, and Batkivshchyna parties would gain victory as well. And, perhaps, the party of Svyatoslav Vakarchuk Holos. At the same time, it seems that there would be no one-party majority in the Parliament of the next convocation. So, the coalition would be formed.

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Zelensky’s Servant of the People party

Before the start of the race, the debutant of the parliamentary race, Servant of the People party of Ukrainian President of Volodymyr Zelensky were predicted to get the victory. The only question was whether it would be able to form a mono-party coalition, or would Servant of the People have to negotiate with other political forces.

According to sources, they hoped to get more than 100 mandates in the majority districts, which, according to our interlocutors, would allow forming a one-party majority. Indeed, the party of the incumbent head of state has already outrun opponents in many corps, gaining almost 50% of the votes in the multi-member district.

Related: Why getting 2% at Ukraine's snap parliamentary elections is favourable for small parties

However, the first controversial personnel decisions and proposals by Zelensky, in particular, the appointment of Andriy Bogdan as head of the Presidential Office, the rollback from his promise to reduce utility tariffs, the talk about the special status of the Russian language in Donbas give birth to accusations of “revanchism.”

According to the research of the Rating Group and the Razumkov Center think tanks, at the end of June, the rating of the Servant of the People dropped to 40%, however, after issuing a decree on early termination of Verkhovna Rada’s authority, this figure reached 50%.

The recent sociology of the Rating group indicates that Zelensky’s team worked on their mistakes. Working trips of the head of state to the regions where he, like the protagonist of the “The Servant of the People” TV show Vasyl Goloborodko, chew out the local officials, demanding their resignation, returned the voter’s support.

Taking into account the single-mandate candidates, Ze!Team expects to get up to 160 mandates.

Opposition platform - For life party

At the beginning of the campaign, the party of Yuriy Boyko, Vadym Rabinovych, and Viktor Medvedchuk already made an application for serious representation in parliament. All the leading sociological companies predicted that it would gain the second place – from 11% to 18%.

The ideas of peace in Donbas, the reduction of gas tariffs for the population and the negotiations of the head of the political council of the party for the release of hostages were favorably received by voters.

And, as evidenced by the final polls, this coming Sunday, The Opposition Platform - For Life will surely take second place on party lists and can count on the majority component by about 50+ MPs.

Related: How to win trust of voters. Instructions for candidates for Ukraine’s parliamentary elections

European Solidarity of ex-president Poroshenko

The rebranded party of the fifth president of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, has chances to close the top three winners, although in June, European Solidarity was on the verge of overcoming the electoral threshold. According to the study of the Rating group, if the parliamentary elections were held in early June, the party of the fifth president could count on the support of 5 % of voters.

“God grant that there would get at least 25 mandates on the list,” sources at European Solidarity assure.

According to the study of the Rating group, which took place from July 13 to July 17, European Solidarity party ranks third with a result of 7.7% of the vote. Our sources say that European Solidarity is counting on the support of 10% of voters who come to the polls, in particular at the expense of those who have not decided on the choice yet.

Holos party of Sviatoslav Vakarchuk

Even on the sidelines of the forum for the nomination of Petro Poroshenko for the second presidential term, it was rumored that Sviatoslav Vakarchuk would participate in parliamentary elections. For a long time, the leader of Okean Elzy music band was associated with the party of the ex-president, but "it didn’t become so, because of the fortune-telling." In mid-May, the singer announced the creation of the Holos party and its participation in parliamentary elections.

The start of the campaign was successful. According to the study of the Rating group, if the elections were held in early June, then 5.6% of voters would vote for Holos party. Low anti-rating of Vakarchuk and his concert tours around the country in combination with media resources, new faces and the help of majoritarian leaders allowed the party to gradually increase in popularity.

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However, so far their getting into the parliament is questionable, in particular, due to the unsuccessful TV broadcasts of Vakarchuk. The latest study by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology leaves the Vakarchuk party overboard with the result of 4%, while the Rating group gives hope for getting to the Verkhovna Rada (5.9%).

Yulia Tymoshenko’s Batkivshchyna

But the party of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s Batkivshchyna will almost certainly be represented in the Verkhovna Rada. Despite the fact that the sponsors of the political force were in the top of the party’s list, some officials of the times of ex-President Viktor Yanukovych, Tymoshenko’s charisma and successful use of the utility tariffs theme are bringing them political success.

The decision of the appellate court to abolish the increase in utility tariffs helped a lot. According to the research of the Rating group, at the start of the campaign and at the finish line, the party of Yulia Tymoshenko is supported by about 7% of respondents. The party itself counts on the support of about 10% of voters and the holding of up to 5 majoritarian candidates to the Rada.

"Our electoral core is located in the village," one of the influential MPs of the Batkivshchyna party states.

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Strength and Honor party of ex-head of the Security Service of Ukraine Ihor Smeshko might potentially join this top five. However, according to the latest research of the Rating group, about 4% of respondents are ready to support the party this coming Sunday, while at the start of the campaign this figure was higher. And the sociologists of Kyiv International Institute of Sociology together with the Razumkov Center leave Strength and Honor outside the Rada.

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