Today, the growth rate of Covid-19 incidence in Ukraine significantly exceeds the maxima achieved during the previous waves, the National Academy of Sciences forecasts on topic of the Covid-19 epidemic progress in Ukraine for September 29 - October 12, 2021.
“Such growth rates are significantly higher than the highs reached during previous waves, when cases and positive tests never increased at a weekly rate above 40% and new hospitalizations at a weekly rate above 30%,” the statement reads.
It is noted that over the past two weeks, the incidence has accelerated growth, the rate of which was heterogeneous over time. Their maximum value approached 70% growth for the week, after which there was a decrease to below 35%, which continues today. Synchronous dynamics were demonstrated by positive tests and new hospitalizations, growing at a maximum rate of 70% and 50%, respectively.
According to official statistics, as of September 28, 2021, the average number of recovering people was 2,071 people per day. The average number of new infections per week on September 28, 2021 is 6,593 per day for Ukraine, which is 2.2 times more than two weeks ago.
The average number of new deaths per week is 115 per day, which is exactly twice as many as 2 weeks ago. The number of actively infected people (who have not yet recovered) has also more than doubled in two weeks to 98,031. New hospitalizations have increased by 93% in two weeks, averaging 1,919 people per day.
The forecast notes that in the second half of September, the incidence rate in 2021 was much higher than in 2020 for the same dates. For example, the detected morbidity and the number of fatalities are already twice as high as last year. The observed mortality remains close to 3%, and the age structure of patients does not give any reasons to expect a significant reduction.
The positivity of PCR tests continues to grow.
“In recent days, the number of cases and positive tests has slowed rapidly, which is still significant - about 35% from all tests per week. The weekly increase in hospitalizations has slowed down to 25%, which is only slightly below the maximum observed in previous waves. Correlation between positive tests and new findings is much more consistent than a year ago,” the statement reads.
As it was reported earlier, on September 28, 2021, 9,666 new confirmed Covid-19 cases were recorded in Ukraine. In particular, 953 children and 204 medical workers fell ill.
On September 27, it was reported that support hospitals in Kharkiv were 90% full. Some patients may be taken to regional hospitals.