Early parliamentary elections have ended in Ukraine. The Central Electoral Commission (CEC) has officially considered them effective, voter turnout as of 20:00 Sunday was 49.84% according to the processed data from all 199 constituencies.
Servant of the People party, which, according to preliminary data, has become the absolute winner of these elections, would gather the number of mandates, allowing forming a majority. However, there are some options, and they are still cautious, declaring that they need to wait for official results.
Actually, now let's talk about the options. Fortunately, the parties that go to the parliament have already expressed their attitude towards the future coalition.
Let's start with the winners.
Servant of the People
The party admits a coalition with Vakarchuk's Holos party.
“I would like to unite with new political forces, for example, Holos – if necessary. I think that if there is constructive dialogue, it would be nice to conduct it with this political force,” said Dmytro Razumkov, leader of the Servant of the People.
At the same time, he said that he cannot imagine a coalition with European solidarity of Petro Poroshenko.
Prior to this, Serhiy Shefir, the first assistant to president Zelensky, stated that the coalition is possible, "if there are normal demands."
At the same time, he added that he is "generally against the coalition."
After the announcement of the exit poll results, president Zelensky stated that the Servant of the People does not see itself in a coalition with parties that “represent the old regime.”
Opposition Platform - For Life
MP from Opposition Platform - For Life party, Nestor Shufrych stated that a coalition with the Servant of the People is practically impossible.
"The coalition with us is practically impossible. Everything is possible in the world of politics. But according to the statements and according to our fundamental differences, including in matters of peace, war, relations with the IMF, we must go for very big compromises to create a coalition with the Servant of the People, Shufrych said.
However, he stressed that anything is possible in the Ukrainian parliament.
European Solidarity is ready to cooperate with Holos party of Vakarchuk. Leader of the party Petro Poroshenko said about this after the publication of exit polls.
“We consider Holos party to be the most ideologically close to us as our main partner if the CEC’s official results confirm the exit poll data,” Poroshenko said.
Yulia Tymoshenko, the head of the Batkivshchyna parliamentary faction, noted that after the elections she hopes to unite with "healthy forces that are ready to lead Ukraine to European standards." She called Servant of the People and Holos, as well as Strength and Honor of Igor Smeshko, which, according to the latest data, does not get to parliament.
Holos representatives said they were ready to negotiate on a coalition with European Solidarity and Batkivschyna. In particular, Holos representative Yaroslav Yurchyshyn told:
“We will never enter into a coalition with pro-Russian forces defending the interests of the occupier... We are ready to join the coalition with those forces that are not backed by the oligarchs. If the forces of Poroshenko and Tymoshenko are seriously ready to talk about deoligarchization - we are ready to negotiate with them. "
Svyatoslav Vakarchuk described the conditions for the entry of Holos into the future coalition.
"We have several clear red lines. First: Ukraine is moving to Europe, the EU, and NATO. Second. There must be a clear principle: the law is one for all and the inevitability of punishment. Third: the economy without oligarchs. Four: we fit the MPs to ground," he said.
Vakarchuk adds that his political force is ready to negotiate with those parties with which they would find a common language.
Format of the coalition
Naturally, provided that the Servant of the People will cooperate with other parties. The reason for the creation of a coalition might be an attempt to create a constitutional majority.
We will immediately emphasize that the creation of a constitutional majority still seems possible only if one joins the coalition of independent single-mandate district candidates.
Servant of the people + Batkivshchyna
Estimated number of MPs
Approximately 250 + about 25 = 275.
It still exists, albeit it is small. Batkivshchyna sends specific signals that it is ready for a coalition with the Servant of the People. The latter does not consider this issue with strong enthusiasm.
Servant of the people + Holos
Estimated number of MPs
Approximately 250+ about 20 = 270.
While it looks more likely than Option 1. Both parties declare their readiness to cooperate. Both parties declare their readiness to cooperate. In that case, if they agree.
Servant of the people + Holos + Batkivshchyna
Estimated number of MPs
Approximately 250 + about 20 + about 25 = 295.
The probability of option 3 does not look very high. Nevertheless, in such a configuration, the coalition will come as close as possible to the constitutional majority.
It is very likely that the "Servant of the People" will have enough of its own forces to get a simple majority and, accordingly, control over parliament.