... 16 579 amendments did not save the situation: on Wednesday, May 13, 270 MPs voted for the law on banking or the so-called “anti-Kolomoysky” law. The bill number 2571 was very unlucky: at an extraordinary parliamentary meeting on March 30, MPs supported it in the first reading and as a basis. However, they faced unprecedented legislative spam with the overwhelming number of amendments.
It took another month to resolve this collision. And on April 30, the Rada appoints amendments that were approved by parliament. And bill No. 2571-d became a law. More precisely, it would become law when the document is sealed with his signature on the president.
It is interesting that some of the experts have no doubt that this will be further cooperation between Ukraine and the IMF. And at the current stage, this is of tremendous importance.
As investment banker Serhiy Fursa notes on Facebook, “the key fact here is that Ukraine receives support in the critical year of 2020 when it is necessary to finance a record budget deficit, and access to foreign markets is limited. As a result, we will avoid the default scenario and scenario unlimited emissions.”
“The main result of voting for the “anti-Kolomoysky” law is that the IMF will give us a loan. Which is especially important in the so-called quarantine period,” says Bohdan Petrenko, deputy director of the Ukrainian Institute for the Study of Extremism.
Andriy Zolotariov, the head of the Third Sector Center, agrees: “Economic consequences are that there is increased hope that Ukraine would receive the IMF tranche, which would help to delay or even prevent the default since the adoption of the “anti-Kolomoysky” law was a categorical condition on the part of the IMF,” he says.
But director of the Ukrainian Institute for Analysis and Policy Management Ruslan Bortnyk calls law 2571-d "paradoxical." He says, “it will have a positive effect on receiving payments from the IMF with a future shift of compensation to bank owners for a later period, because now, having no opportunity to appeal the decision on their banks in Ukraine, they will go to the international courts.”
“This law,” Bortnyk continues, “is paradoxical in that it affects not so much Privatbank as how to regulate the legal relations of the past. Not the future, but the past. It legalizes the scheme according to which the team of Petro Poroshenko with the support of external players smashed the banking market in 2014-2018 and when up to 95% of the sold collateral of bankrupt banks went into corrupted accounts, and instead of putting an end to this criminal scheme, the Verkhovna Rada gave it indulgence, exchanging it for another loan from WF.”
Bortnyk implies the removal of more than a hundred banking institutions from the banking sector under the leadership of the then head of the National Bank (NBU), Valeria Gontareva, began in 2014 and continued almost until the end of the rule of Petro Poroshenko. Many consider artificial and even criminal such massive destruction of banks.
Quarrel of the century
“The second consequence of the adoption of the law,” says Bogdan Petrenko, “is that Zelensky did not go towards Kolomoisky and did not block this bill. This indicates his distancing from Kolomoisky.”
Actually, Petrenko adds, “Kolomoisky’s people are already rubbing out the president. They have been demonstrating anti-presidential positions for a long time. Perhaps Kolomoisky’s media will stop filling a warm bath for Zelensky, but such warm baths will be found on other channels for him.”
“Mythologem that Zelensky is a puppet of Kolomoisky is destroyed,” Andriy Zolotariov notes. “Although this, in fact, has always been an exaggeration. The relationship between them was rather partnership. At the same time, Kolomoisky will not leave this, and Zelensky will feel all the consequences in the fall. The president might not want to aggravate the conflict, but he cannot but understand that he has acquired a ticket to the war.”
Political analyst Kyrylo Sazonov agrees with this. In his opinion, on Wednesday “the myth of Kolomoisky, which runs Zelensky as a puppet master, was destroyed. No, he doesn’t. The president relies on voters, and rightly so.”
War or a game?
But let us not don't jump the gun, the law on banking has already entered into force, urges political analyst Yevgeniy Bulavka. “First, wer need to wait for the president to sign the law. Secondly, we need to observe the behavior of the Privat group - its MPs will almost certainly want to challenge the adoption of the law in court,” he states.
“The laws do not always work in Ukraine. Or rather, they act in a way that is beneficial to those who apply these laws. Therefore, even the adoption of the law on banks does not mean that Kolomoisky’s interests are defeated. It only means that he will act in a different way. For him it’s a loss of a battle, but not of war,” says Bogdan Petrenko.
But is this really a war? This is rather a question. So, the Privat group (that is, MPs oriented to lobby Igor Kolomoisky’s interests) did not vote for Law 2571-d
“We have been observing the conflict within the Servant of the People party for a long time. There is at least a real war between at least two groups of influence, although there are actually more of them. Actually, the term “mono-majority” has long become outdated and has lost its relevance, but the shell has survived only and the brand’s name. Perhaps the "divorce" process will never be framed, but different parts of this fraction have long been living their own lives,” says Yevhen Bulavka.
And Ruslan Bortnyk adds: “The Privat Group, in the amount of 40-55 MPs, has long been in internal opposition to the faction and has its own key to successful voting, which forces the government from time to time to enter into situational alliances with the Holos, Dovira parliamentary group or European solidarity, and such unions are toxic for the government,” says the expert.
Since out of 264 MPs of the Servant of the People faction, only 200 voted for the anti-Kolomoisky law, its adoption would not have been possible without the help of other factions and groups. Therefore, the positive vote was made by European Solidarity (23 votes), the Holos faction (18), the Dovira group (16), the non-factional (10), and the For the Future group (3 votes).
“Tactical cooperation between Zelensky and Poroshenko already takes place and will continue in the future,” Andriy Zolotariov is convinced.
Bulavka assures that there is a politician who really gives trump cards to Igor Kolomoisky. “Yulia Tymoshenko works in the paradigm of his interests,” the expert says. “They are connected, it was obvious even during the elections. They have a common goal - to repeal the law on banks, and Tymoshenko, in this case, plays the role of a political tool in the hands of Kolomoisky. "
At least Tymoshenko has already announced her intention to appeal the adoption of the “anti-Kolomoisky” law in the Constitutional Court. But "the seriousness of her intentions can be treated exactly like her words about the land market. As a prime minister, she supported it, and now is raising peasant riots,” Bulavka notes.
“Tymoshenko will try to earn points on this topic, because, as an experienced politician, she understands that this is exactly the moment when this can be done. But at the same time, she is still outside this plot. Its main characters - Zelensky, Kolomoisky, Poroshenko, and the IMF have already entered the scene,” says Andriy Zolotariov.
Well, there, on stage, we will leave them. The show should go on, and who, if not all of the characters listed, should know this best?