Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov has warned the European Union about the problems that the bloc may face in the event of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine. This is stated in his article published on the Atlantic Council website on November 3.
"Today, the Ukrainian army is one of the strongest ground forces in Europe with more than 400,000 combat veterans. We have the resources and the resolve to stand up to the enemy. And Russia knows it. The only real uncertainty is whether Europe fully appreciates what a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine would mean for the rest of the continent," he said.
In addition to its nuclear arsenal, Russia also easily outguns Ukraine in terms of military aviation, rocket systems, and naval strength. Russian missiles can cause devastating damage to Ukrainian towns and cities, while Russian airborne and marine forces can outmaneuver Ukrainian troops and seize territory.
The human cost for Ukraine would be catastrophic, but Ukrainians would not mourn alone. Russia would also suffer massive losses.
"A major war in Ukraine would plunge the whole of Europe into crisis. The sudden appearance of between three and five million Ukrainian refugees fleeing the Russian invasion would be just one of many major concerns facing European society," Reznikov said.
In addition, he notes that a major war would seriously disrupt and possibly prevent entirely many imports from both Ukraine and Russia, creating a whole range of food security problems for the entire continent. For example, the EU relies heavily on food imports including grain.
Russia’s attack would also mark a definitive end to the rules-based international order, opening the door to a new era of global insecurity that would threaten decades of unprecedented peace throughout most of Europe.
Meanwhile, Oleksiy Reznikov believes that the only real way for Western countries to prevent the escalation of Russian aggression on the border with Ukraine is to convince Moscow that the price of a new offensive would be too high to contemplate.