Here is the chart on the new cases and daily tests for the period of publication of statistics on the Covid-19.
The blue curve shows new cases presented as a 7-day moving average, that is, every day we look at the average for the previous 7 days. This makes it possible to smooth the jumps back and forth, which we see, for example, due to the fact that on weekends and working days they conduct different numbers of tests. The gray bars are the number of new tests for each day, and the gray curve is the 7-day average of these tests.
It is clearly seen that just two weeks after the weakening of lockdown, the curve of cases went up. And the test curve is down. From this, we can draw the following conclusions:
- This is not about anti-records or records, but about a clear trend, which began approximately on June 4.
- This trend is not due to the fact that Ukraine began to do more tests, and not because it accumulated in a few days, as the Ministry of Health said.
- The delay in how our testing system shows the real picture is 2 weeks. Whatever the Ministry of Health says about what tests have learned to do in a few days. Or whatever they say to him from the regions.
What should a healthy person’s government do when they see this trend?
- We should look at a trend, not at the daily numbers.
- Even on the day, the quarantine is weakened, it has several distribution scenarios. The baseline should be a scenario of a small controlled growth of cases. This could be reached with the help of common sense and a short review of the experience of other countries.
An optimistic scenario is a constant number of new cases. Pessimistic - an uncontrolled sharp increase in new cases.
- Determine what scenario the situation is developing. Explain it to people.
- By entering adaptive quarantine, adhere to its principles. That is, to understand in which particular regions and due to which there is an increase in cases. Prepare local measures in response.
The government would try to understand what exactly is happening in the Lviv region and would think about possible measures.
And he would have been worried about the sharp change in the curve in the Donetsk region, which is located on the border of Russian-controlled territories. Russia, not Europe, I recall, today is one of the main epicenters of the pandemic.
- The government of a healthy person as early as May 22, having the base case scenario, the growth of new cases, would widely, constantly, and disciplined communicate with people about what to do to contain the spread, but without quarantine restrictions.
- The government would create conditions for maintaining social distance and hygiene. For example, it would put sanitizers in the subway.
Despite this, the Ukrainian government believed and continues to believe that the virus is being overcome by quarantine, and not by testing + isolation, maintaining distance and hygiene.
The government did not seem to have a plan after weakening quarantine. Instead, there were hopes for a miracle. No miracle happened. This greatly disappointed the government.
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