What interests does Turkey pursue in Nagorno-Karabakh?

Author : Usy Assada (Assad's moustache) Telegram channel

Source : 112 Ukraine

It seems that Turkey's motivation to support (and maybe even initiate) a military escalation stems from the desire to reshape the political alignments in the Transcaucasus in its favor within the framework of its regional geostrategy
21:44, 6 October 2020

RIA news

By "re-activating" the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh and changing the military-political balance of forces in favor of its ally Azerbaijan (and therefore in its favor), Turkey intends to establish itself in the region as one of the stakeholders of the local processes, guarantors of the new status quo, along with Russia, France, USA, and EU.

The existing multilateral mechanisms for resolving the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, the formats of negotiations with the mediators (France, the United States and the Russian Federation as co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group), interim agreements reached within this process - all of this is perceived by the Turkish political leadership as remnants of the old world order, de-actualized elements of the past era, which did not take into account the interests of Turkey.

In Turkey's actions in Nagorno-Karabakh, we see an intention to demolish this old age, to overshadow the traditional guarantors, who, according to Ankara, only hinder their ambitions and interests, and also to come to an acceptable format for resolving the issue after achieving some military progress and establishing a new political reality.

It seems to me that one of the options for an acceptable format of negotiations for Turkey could be a bilateral dialogue with Russia, which in Ankara, judging by the coverage of the conflict in the Turkish media, is perceived quite normally as a key partner in this direction. That is, for Turkey, Nagorno-Karabakh is not a war against the Russian Federation, but a challenge to the established balance of forces in the Caucasus, which, in their opinion, does not serve Ankara's interests.

Related: Merkel supports statement of Putin, Trump, Macron on conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh

The military escalation and its aftermath should reverse the old paradigm of the Eurasian chessboard for Turkey to emerge as one of the key players.

This, in fact, is the entire offensive regional agenda of Erdogan, both in the Eastern Mediterranean and in Libya, when Turkey, collapsing old agreements and geopolitical structures, introduces new leads to crisis areas and invites other players to share spheres of influence with Ankara according to principles, which seem to them to be more fair and correct, taking into account their interests.

In a sense, this is very similar to what Donald Trump is doing on the Israeli-Palestinian track when he demolishes old principles, institutions, and agreements and forcibly imposes a new political reality that seems to him more correct and fair in relation to the United States.

Such a global backdrop, where everyone ignores the old rules of the game and creates fertile ground for the revitalization of their foreign policy from ascending regional players such as Turkey.

Related: Nagorno-Karabakh conflict’s second week: What is happening there right now?

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