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'Truce' in Nagorno-Karabakh: War is not over, but takes on different form

Author : Ruslan Bortnyk

Source : 112 Ukraine

Let's talk about the statement of the Presidents of the Russian Federation, Azerbaijan and the Prime Minister of Armenia.
22:39, 11 November 2020

Russian Defense Ministry

What does this agreement give to the parties:

- Armenia retains (although territorially truncated and unrecognized) Karabakh in the situation of losing the war. This is not a surrender, but a very bad peace;

- The Karabakh Armenians will now receive a Russian (and not Armenian) army on their borders, which will increase their security and reduce the likelihood of a full-scale escalation of the conflict in the future (South Ossetia and Abkhazia are remembered in the Caucasus);

- Azerbaijan and Turkey won the war and Azerbaijan restored control over all Azerbaijani territories around the NKR (the so-called "security belt" in Armenia) and part of the NKR territory itself;

- Azerbaijan gets transport access to Nakhichevan and, possibly, a land corridor to Turkey;

- Turkey appears in the Caucasus as a serious political and military player, increases its influence in Azerbaijan;

- The Russian Federation increases its presence in the Caucasus: influence in Armenia (weakened after the Maidan) + actually takes control of the NKR;

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- the change of the prime minister of Armenia is likely in the interests of the Russian Federation;

- The Minsk format of negotiations under the auspices of the OSCE with the participation of the United States and France has proven to be ineffective and may cease to exist (the influence of the United States and France on the region is decreasing) if the Russian Federation and Turkey do not want to use it as a tool for monitoring the implementation of agreements;

- possibly refugees will return to their homes.

Critical spots:

- the conflict is not over: Azerbaijan continues to consider the uncontrolled territory of Karabakh as its own;

- the statement of the leaders of the countries has a low international legal value, therefore it is advisable to involve the UN Security Council;

- mechanisms for monitoring compliance with the agreement are fragile and can be disrupted at any time;

- there is a further militarization of the region due to the attraction of combatants from the Syrian theater and the gradual involvement of Iran;

- Thousands of people became victims of the new Karabakh war.

P.S. The downed Russian helicopter may have become a "pretext for peace" and not for war.

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