According to exit polls in the multi-member constituencies, as well as CEC data for single-member ones, we can estimate what the situation will look like in the next parliament.
So, the Servant of the People will lead about 122 MPs into the next Rada according to the party list, as well as at least 123 by majoritarian constituencies. In total, the pro-presidential force will have about 245 mandates. In addition, some self-promoted MPs can join the faction, although they themselves went to the polls, but they are very loyal to the president’s circle.
The Opposition Platform - For Life has 37 places in the list and so far 7 majoritarian candidates – 44 MPs in total.
European solidarity will most likely receive 25 mandates from the list and another 2 candidates in the districts have chances to win.
Batkivshchyna also has a victory of 2 majoritarian candidates, but in the multi-member constituency the result is more modest - 23 mandates.
Holos leadss 18 MPs to the Rada on the list and has a chance to “take” 2-3 2 majoritarian candidates in the Lviv region.
Of the parties that will not have their own factions, the Opposition bloc may have the largest representation - 6 MPs. Although there was predicted a lot more. But even Borys Kolesnikov lost in his district.
According to preliminary data, Svoboda, Samopomich and the local party Bila Tserkov Razom can also lead one MP to the parliament.
Self-promoted candidatess still lead in 52 districts. As mentioned above, some of them can replenish the coalition led by the Servant of the People.
What conclusions can be drawn from these figures? At a minimum, the fact that President Zelensky can have a coalition of one party. However, taking into account that not Zelensky himself, but the oligarch Igor Kolomoisky, has greater influence on the Servant of the People, perhaps the Holos of Svyatoslav Vakarchuk and the Batkivshchyna of Yulia Timoshenko will be invited there for greater stability. The smaller the opposition factions are, the less criticism will be poured on the new government.
Surely European Solidarity and Opposition Platform - For Life will be in opposition separately.
The single-party majority carries many hidden threats: one political force takes legislative and executive power into its own hands, and in the future it can subjugate judicial authority. The system of checks, which in Ukraine was usually held together by the parliament’s diversity, collapsed in one day. As now Zelensky, Kolomoisky, Razumkov, Bogdan will have, in fact, full power. Time will tell, but the precedent is clearly dangerous.
In addition, it raises questions on the quality of the new Rada. Wedding photographers, housewives, toastmasters and other people who are not familiar with legislative activity entered the parliament’s list of Servants of the People. People who owe a rapid political career to the party, and therefore will do only what the leadership will say. There is no need to wait for pluralism of opinions. By and large, the "Servant" held the personal "buttons" in the Rada - sit and press what they ask. It is still unknown who will write laws, protect the interests of the country in international organizations.
Ukrainians voted even better than planned in the Office of the President. Therefore, they will soon announce extraordinary elections to local councils, do not even hesitate. And here it is interesting where the Servant of the People will recruit new faces? At the parliamentary elections, 300 people were barely scraped together - they snatched all the nannies and photographers. As if there was enough personnel reserve for local choice, after all thousands of candidates will be needed for local councils.
But Ukrainians, in principle, like this approach. There is something in this from 1917, when Lenin, with his speeches and promises of proletarian power, turned the country around. True, the story says that later it may not be so funny. But thinking ahead is not a royal business.