Something incredible happened. Russia has to follow the world scene from the stalls. The US and China dominate the scene. Their clash or their dialogue will determine the movement of the global world.
What has Russia to do with this? We have our own concerns. We have on the agenda the popular endorsement of autocracy for all time. The irony is that popular approval is worthless if autocracy ceases to be great-power! After all, Russia has dropped out of the league of those who shape the global trajectory. But in this case, it is not clear how autocracy can exist with a broken sovereign spine.
Meanwhile, America is not in the best fighting form. Russia is whining about American hegemony, making it the idea of fixation, which should fuel our resentment. In fact, America is trying to escape from its obligations. The withdrawal of 15,000 American troops from Germany, and before that the withdrawal of troops from Syria, the decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, and the limited contingent in Iraq, are a confirmation of the collapse of the US global presence.
The collapse of the world order is a consequence of America’s refusal from the role of arbiter and gendarme. The world, grumbling about US leadership, was at a loss, not knowing how to live without the hegemon that is bossing everyone around.
What hegemony are we talking about if America has fallen into a crisis? Things began to crumble: an economic recession, a deadly pandemic, and finally racial conflict. Analysts have long been predicting problems, saying that the American model is degrading. Trump deepened the crisis by starting to undermine the principles on which American democracy is built.
But those who bury America are in a hurry. The crisis is a great healer. Change is impossible without a crisis that exposes the decrepitude of the structure. The crisis that shakes the United States might have been necessary for the Americans to think about the changes. The great nation has already gone through crises in the 30s and 70s and managed to consolidate, reaching a new level of development.
American tradition has regulators that protect against the worst - maintaining power through the suppression of society. This is evidenced by the readiness of the Americans to protest, and the elite cannot ignore it, and the army’s refusal to turn into an instrument of suppression.
“We will not become a repressive body. We have vowed to defend the right to freedom of speech and peaceful assembly,” the military told their president when he tried to force the army to disperse the protests. With such an army you cannot be afraid for the fate of democracy.
China looks more dynamic. The first civilization in the world to form a state based on meritocracy and rules. In China, the ability of rulers to self-restraint and bureaucratic efficiency were laid in control, while Europe was ruled by monarchs, who considered the state to be their property.
At the same time, China is a country with a complex of humiliation. For a long time, China compensated for the humiliation with clever "soft power." China has managed to rise like an economic giant, has begun to build an economy based on knowledge and new technologies. Today, China, having the largest group of scientists and engineers in the world (more than 4 million people), has become an important part of the global scientific and technological hub.
China managed to carry out a creeping expansion, subjugating the continents to influence and penetrating the pores of the Western economy while displacing foreign campaigns from its market. Xi Jinping's projects - Made in China 2025, Chinese Standards 2035, and One Belt - One Way - mean a bid for world domination and export of the Chinese model.
But China let down impatience. Too early, Beijing announced its desire to become a hegemon. Too frankly, Beijing has begun to impose itself on the world. This is what Chinese analysts, independent of Beijing, assure. In order to build a "world order in accordance with the interests of the Communist Party, China carries out militarization, bribes politicians from different countries, avenges criticism of Chinese politics, creates thousands of Confucius Institutes around the world, pays for scientists in the USA and other countries, and buys abroad strategic ports and infrastructures."
Chinese analysts warn: Chinese leadership "never keeps promises," "does not believe in rules, laws, and common sense," "it believes only in strength." Chinese peaceful expansion was more effective than Russian attempts to force the world to accept its sovereignty. China has made the world dependent on its economy, finance, and technology. But emboldened, China took off its gloves and began to act according to the Russian scenario.
Beijing has shifted to "warrior-wolf diplomacy" - a global hard pressure. The new policy in China is associated with the exploits of the hero of the Chinese blockbuster Wolf-Warrior, in which Lang Feng, Chinese Rambo, smashes enemies around the world.
Australia has become an example that demonstrates the Chinese retaliation. “You want to investigate our responsibility for the coronavirus,” China assures. “Get your answer here!” By increasing duties on Australian agricultural products, Beijing has put Australian farmers at risk of bankruptcy.
America is leaving. China is trying to entrench itself on the world stage. But everyone has already understood, looking at the revived Dragon, that its arms would be asphyxiating. They have understood and shuddered! The world will soon begin to nostalgic for American hegemony.
What about Russia? Russia sits in the parterre. Not on the balcony. Looking at the struggle of the giants, we can turn our brains on and think about whose victory will be more profitable for us. Which hegemon would there be less humiliation for us? We are unlikely to be able to influence the outcome of their clinch. We need to get used to living with a new balance of power. We have to more realistically assess our ambitions. This is for the best: it’s time to finally go about our business.
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