President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his Servant of the People party have lost in Kyiv not only because they could not get into the mayoral office. This is still half the trouble. They’ve lost because they could not bring a powerful faction to the Kyiv City Council. Because the faction that entered it is not that influential.
Earlier, it was planned that the coalition in the Kyiv City Council would be created by UDAR and Servant of the People. This would be the best option for both. UDAR as the embodiment of local power and Servant of the People as the core of the all-Ukrainian power would be equal in total to a strong and invincible "duumvirate". But it just did not work out.
Mayor Klitschko's faction receives 30 mandates in the City Council. This is only one less than it should be (according to preliminary estimates) from the European Solidarity. "30 + 31" is exactly what makes the coalition between European Solidarity and UDAR now more natural and more expected. Servant of the People gets pitiful 12 mandates do not allow the president's party to count on a coalition.
According to the preliminary data, Vitali Klitschko wins the mayoral elections in the first round. Just like Petro Poroshenko won the presidential elections in 2014. The parallel between the two begs itself all the time. Perhaps Klitschko would have won the same way six years ago if he had used his high (at that time) presidential rating and had not given way to Poroshenko.
Therefore, it can be assumed that Vitali Klitschko regrets his refusal to fight in 2014. Perhaps he regrets about not running a president in 2024. Klitschko's current success motivates and inspires him. And all would be fine, but Poroshenko is still adored by his electorate. After all, it was Poroshenko who brought the largest faction to the Kyiv City Council.
So, we have Klitschko and Poroshenko. And one of them dreams of revenge, and the other dreams of "I'll be back" scenario. And according to the genre, only the strongest will survive.
Thus, they cannot be associates. Maybe they might be allies? Who knows. Probably, Poroshenko still has a slap in the face from Klitschko when he refused to go to local elections with him. In a word, everything is complicated between these two. And this is where a tiny chance for Servant of the People falls out. Because if these two large factions, two political forces united against the little "servant", he would not have time for jokes. And so there remains, albeit a ghostly, but opportunity to turn the situation in the right direction.
Servant of the People can take on the role of a locomotive in creating a coalition and, for a start, persuade UDAR to cohabitation. The total is 42 mandates. To form the majority (60 + 1 mandate), another 19 deputies are needed. Who could provide them? In addition to UDAR, Servant of the People, and European Solidarity, Omelchenko's Unity (13 people), Opposition platform – For life (12), Batkivshchyna (12) and Holos (10) remain in the Kyiv City Council.
Klitschko will not agree to an alliance with the Opposition platform – For life. Perhaps he would have agreed to an alliance with Holos, but for some reason, it seems that this faction will preserve its "virginity", that is, non-systemic character.
In the end, UDAR and Servant of the People can call only Omelchenko's group into the union (together there will be 30 + 12 + 13 = 55 deputies), and the rest of the votes can be won later - as if not with a stick, but with a carrot.
But what will European Solidarity do at this time? Actually, nothing. It has already stated that it can create a coalition only with the "Maidan parties". This means that they have little room for maneuver. Because if UDAR separates, only Batkivshchyna will remain from the "Maidan parties". But it is as difficult to imagine Poroshenko and Tymoshenko in the same boat as a mammoth walking along Khreshchatyk. And they still would not have enough votes for a full-fledged coalition.
To sum up, all that has been said: what will happen to the coalition in the Kyiv City Council? Much will depend on the Servant of the People - on how soon the Zelensky's deputies will leave the digitalized world into the real one and begin to negotiate with potential partners.