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How storming of Capitol to affect international credibility of the United States?

Author : Ruslan Bortnyk

Source : 112 Ukraine

Either it was a special operation by the Democrats to break the resistance of the Republicans during the certification of electoral votes, or it was the crowd effect and banal stupidity that played a role, or whether US President Donald Trump was behind this, trying to put pressure on the Senate (most likely) - everything by and large, is not important, since in addition to momentary informational, political and even legal effects, they will have far-reaching tactical and strategic consequences
23:37, 12 January 2021

Open source

Basically, it doesn't matter who planned and led the invasion of the Capitol, or who is currently trying to exploit the situation. Either it was a special operation by the Democrats to break the resistance of the Republicans during the certification of electoral votes, or it was the crowd effect and banal stupidity that played a role, or whether US President Donald Trump was behind this, trying to put pressure on the Senate (most likely) - everything by and large, is not important, since in addition to momentary informational, political and even legal effects, they will have far-reaching tactical and strategic consequences for the entire political system. Who is to blame and how to live with it now?

The picture from the Capitol with fleeing police officers, dead and wounded protesters, street protesters in the seats of senators was not just a logical final footage of the 4-year rule of Donald Trump - the incessant integral war of the two Americas - old and new, but significantly expanded the Overton's political window, undermined trust in key state and public institutions and procedures, the public architecture of power that had been built for centuries and the general image of the future - the American Dream.

At the same time, the instinct of self-preservation, which is now demonstrated by the American elites (including Trump), the mass arrests of the assault participants should not lead to ignoring, since this only brings new catastrophes closer, because:

1) it is obvious that such elections and summing up their results, protests and deaths of peaceful protesters in the Capitol strategically undermine the domestic and international authority of the United States in terms of democratic globalization, effective and fair elections and procedures for forming power. The myth of the US political system, where "everything is reliably regulated" and "high political culture" allows finding a democratic way out of any situation, has been seriously and permanently discredited. Therefore, in the future, in order to indicate to other countries "which democracy is correct," the United States will have to rely only on strength, not authority, and this will reduce real opportunities;

2) the undermining of American authority, in turn, entails the weakening of one of the key instruments of US influence in the world - soft power, which they have effectively used abroad for decades. "Such a victory" by Joe Biden - marred by allegations of fraud and blood in the Capitol - may not return the former strength to the conditional "sorrows" (as expected), but make them even more toxic and informationally defenseless abroad. In addition, many sincere (and not professional) Americanophiles (especially of the Trumpian-Republican wing) are becoming Americanosceptics before our very eyes;

3) the split between the two Americas is aggravating: the first is financial-globalistic, deep, controlling key media, social networks and the state, burying a recidivist criminal with presidential honors in a "golden" coffin, and the second - traditional industrial, provincial, marginalized, but multimillion, seeing off the last journey of the veteran of the US Army, who defended the state for 14 years and was killed in the Senate. The problem is aggravated by the fact that the former have the state in their hands, the latter have traditions and justice (possibly), the former feel like winners, and the latter feel powerlessness and injustice. At the same time, dozens of victims and detainees are the new protest elite. At least every fifth or fourth American supports the storming of the Capitol. The period of relative political and social stability for the United States is probably over;

4) the political "Overton window" is expanding. Primitive fraudulent electoral technologies, the invasion of the Senate meeting room and the shooting of peaceful protesters in the Capitol were not long ago "unthinkable" for the United States, but now they are simply "radical." Or it can become "acceptable". And then, instead of House of Cards, American politicians will start the Hunger Games and Mockingjay - games with more simplified and rough rules. Society has been preparing for this in recent years. And in its own way it is paradoxical that the personal BLM movement, with its "zones of freedom" and assaults of municipal institutions, did essentially a lot for this;

Related: Storming the Capitol: Trump stress-testing US democracy

5) an unprecedented in modern history crisis of the legitimacy of the newly elected authorities - both the President and the Senate - is being formed. After all, every third voter in the United States is convinced that the elections were rigged. This is Biden's "Pyrrhic victory", depriving him of political prospects, making him a "half-lame duck" from the first day of his presidency. The worst thing for the American political system is that both the government and the opposition (which turned out to be the same systemic one) are simultaneously being discredited, the public negative caused by the elections is losing presentation channels.

In addition, there were not enough "women's marches", "teacher strikes", "BLM-movements" to get rid of Donald Trump. And the American financial and political establishment - the "deep state" (hidden consensus of the elites) - was often forced to act directly and blatantly ignoring the rules and norms declared in the world and within the country (which is only the activity of the media, key social networks or the vote count). As a result, many Americans "woke up" with a feeling familiar to totalitarian countries - a sense of the "facade" nature of a formal state and a sense of powerlessness. The level of social alienation, distrust of the political system and the media (public information channels) will only grow. Donald Trump's thesis "to dry up the Washington bog" was first transformed into "elections rigged", and now "the deep people against the deep elites" has become stronger;

6) the concentration of absolute power in the hands of the Democrats (the presidential post, the Senate and the House of Representatives - "mono-majority", in a word) may mean the last political cycle for the old Republican party. Trumpians and Democrats have created an existential future crisis for the GOP. As a result, either a one-party model may emerge in the United States, or serious competitors will emerge to replace the Republicans. It is possible that this presidential and Senate by-election was a swan song for the classic old Republicans. After all, they not only lost everything they could to the Democrats, but also seriously discredited themselves in the eyes of their own voters, who in their mass are on the side of D. Trump, and not M. Pence. Reform of the US electoral system and a transition to direct voting in US elections, an increase in the role of Congress and a weakening of the president are also very likely;

7) the current political instability can affect the economy. The huge US budget deficit, the bubble in stock markets, the covid crisis, and many other problems are actually stopped largely due to the status of the main emission center in the world - the US dollar is the dominant reserve currency of the world economy (from 63 to 75% of transactions and reserves ). And its credibility is largely based on American political stability, which is now under threat. At least a partial loss of faith in the political system of the United States and, accordingly, confidence in the dollar in the world can lead to a new economic crisis, which the world has not seen in the 21st century.

Of course, the consequences will be much greater. Let’s see if the American political elites come up with something to restore the broken bipartisan balance. In the meantime, fear and rage reign in the Capitol.

Related: Protests incited by gas price hike grip Ukraine: Would they escalate into new Maidan?

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