First, local elites won these elections. They won with a wide margin from the political touring performers from Kyiv. Because if we believe the exit polls, the current mayors have remained in their places everywhere. It is not enough to smoke a few iqos or pay for Facebook advertising for thousands of followers and assume that you would win soon.
No, local love are wined in a different way. And although it is difficult to explain the phenomenon of such love, when it comes to individual mayors, they are still voted for. But for you, dear Ze-team members and ambassadors of big business, this does not work.
What consequences would such a victory for local elites have? First of all, their increasing autonomy from Kyiv. The chief sanitary doctor or profile minister with a residence permit in the capital will no longer determine the green and red quarantine zones - the regional centers will deal with the color scheme themselves. True, they did not dance too much to the tune of the center before, and now they will not, even more so.
Second, the president's party is defeated. While sitting in Kyiv, politicians tend to think that the people are not interested in scandals that are played out under the dome of the Verkhovna Rada or in the building of the Cabinet of Ministers. It turns out to be interesting though. Because everyone loves gossips and rumors, politicians from the Servant of the People party had to pay for the factions in the faction and mistakes in local elections.
Those 10% that Servants of the People candidates received at the level of Kyiv (and even more so 4.74% at the level of Lviv) is not just a failure, but a mega-failure. So, now the president's political force has an opportunity to say that the Ze-team first became a member of the district and regional councils, but let's not deceive ourselves.
Three, a electoral axiom: the electorate does not disappear without a trace even with a low turnout. It spills over to opponents who have acted using old proven methods. Not by TikTok, but boards, agitation boards, meetings with voters, walking "from door to door." This is how the Opposition platform – For life party worked, and then successfully conquered the southeast. And this was also predictable, as was the fact that Zelensky's disappointed voter would rally around this political force.
Fourth. "Language, army, faith" are still in demand among some voters. There is a demand for patriotism, but the bearers of such demand have become picky. For example, far-right "Svoboda" never resumed its success in 2012, but "European Solidarity" showed a good result. True, it failed to absorb the votes of Holos, but even without the takeover, Petro Poroshenko's party came, for example, in Kyiv. Poroshenko’s force has lost in Lviv, because it did not manage to defeat acting mayor Andriy Sadovy.
Five, one more axiom: money doesn't bring happiness. And not always a political project, into which a lot of funds were “invested,” the guarantee of success is precisely in these funds. A striking example is a Propositional party, created for the elections. It was effective in these elections only in those cities where mayors who were included in the party ran for office. For example, in Dnipro and Mykolaiv. Actually, they “pushed it into” the city councils. But the attempt to create a kind of trans-municipal union at the country level has failed.
According to the elections, it seems, everything. As for the presidential poll, there is nothing to talk about. It is clear that its organizers could count on support only from supporters of Zelensky himself. The electorate of Poroshenko, Tymoshenko, Opposition platform – For life or Holos would not voluntarily come to Zelensky’s volunteers and answer the notorious five questions. And even if they did, they would do it to provoke a conflict. And the battle for their voter in the Ze-team was shamefully lost.
Why did you lose? Because of the incredible self-confidence that led to the defeat in the local elections. Because of the hope that only Zelensky's name will work, and everyone will rush to grab and fill out the questionnaire. It did not work out. The president himself failed his own plan. Therefore, the biggest mistake now would be further promotion and rooting of the presidential poll.