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"Bloody pastor" or gray cardinal: What will be "new" Turchynov?

Author : Natalia Lebed

Source : 112 Ukraine

The banal phrase that there are no former politicians still does not lose relevance. Those who once tasted the power will seek a repetition of this "gastronomic" experience. Now a whole crowd of politicians of the past would not mind taking up the mace again, but no one would give them such an opportunity. Because, as stated in Matthew, "for there are many called, but few chosen."
22:47, 1 July 2020

Oleksandr Turchynov, the Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council
Open source

Who, if not Oleksandr Turchynov, needs to know this quote? At least his hypostasis, which calls itself a preacher. But Turchynov is not only a pastor in his Baptist church. He is a politician, he is an official, and, therefore, he is that Perpetuum mobile which will never be satisfied only by scrolling through the pages of the Bible.

That is why Oleksandr Turchynov leaves his church chair for a while and returns to the political rostrum. He himself announced this on June 30.

Render unto Caesar the things that are Caesar's, and unto God the things that are God's

With his characteristic pathos, Turchynov noted the following on his FB page:

The time when I do not work in parliament or in government positions, I always use to do science, write books, study biblical texts, preach in the church, live a calm and interesting life. I try to avoid publicity, which brings discomfort to a normal life. But it’s painful for me to see how a country that has been artificially driven into a crisis paradigm since last year, is steadily approaching a social and economic disaster."

Then there are many more letters, and finally, the essence of the news:

Ukraine needs a peaceful reload of power. Our country needs responsible professionals capable of stopping the destruction of the economy, protecting the country, and forcing everyone to reckon with the national interests of a strong and independent Ukraine. I am not interested in a parliamentary mandate or government posts, but to help the unification process and prepare quality personnel effective managers, I accepted the proposal to head the headquarters created by the leading Ukrainian opposition political force, European Solidarity.

All of this could be more concisely formed: I am going to participate in the elections. But the former associate of Yulia Tymoshenko resorted to a verbal balancing act. However, here is an interesting passage:

"It's time to forget the old conflicts and strife and unite to overcome all the crises and troubles, to ensure the development of Ukraine as a powerful democratic European power!"

It’s not entirely clear what kind of conflicts we are talking about,” said Bohdan Petrenko, deputy director of the Ukrainian Institute for the Study of Extremism, in comments for 112.ua. And indeed. If you extrapolate this phrase of Turchynov to Poroshenko, then they, like, did not quarrel. It is difficult to argue with the man who compares himself with Jesus Christ (Turchynov had such an image shortly after Poroshenko lost the presidential election).

Purely male company

It would be completely different if Oleksandr Turchynov had in mind his long-time comrade-in-arms Yulia Tymoshenko. There was a quarrel and even a fight for the inheritance in the form of the "Fatherland" party. In 2014, before the start of the parliamentary elections, Turchynov proposed the official renaming of the party into the "United Fatherland" and the complete re-election of the governing bodies. He also came up with the initiative to sign a coalition agreement with the Solidarity, Udar, and Svoboda parties. Yulia Tymoshenko did not go for it, and therefore Turchynov left.

This is a long and good known story. But Turchynov was unlikely to mean Tymoshenko when he spoke of the need to discard long-standing scores. It seems that no one is calling Yulia Tymoshenko into the union. At least for now.

Tymoshenko today lives a hard life after the pogrom of 2014. When the most bright and productive leaders of the team left her, she had to collect the Fatherland almost from scratch. After the Narodnyi Front was created from the part of the “Fatherland”, she was shocked by these losses. Because she couldn’t replace Turchynov or Yatsenyuk simply by anyone. This means that Tymoshenko will have a second, if not third roles in the political system," says Ruslan Bortnyk, director of the Ukrainian Institute for Policy Analysis and Management.

Nobody will call Tymoshenko to a new association of democratic forces, our experts are convinced. She simply is not needed by potential associates. Only one star should shine in their horizon - the star of Petro Poroshenko. It is he who will meet in a duel both with Zelensky and another representative who is nominated for the presidency. As for Tymoshenko, she is absent in such arrangements.

It is "around Poroshenko’s person that right-wing (both national-democratic and radical) political forces are uniting. For that part of the Narodnyi Front, which is represented by hawks, Poroshenko is the point of attraction. I mean Chornovol, Pashinsky, and Omelyan and others. Yes, Poroshenko is now becoming the center of the right moves..." says Bortnyk.

After the departure of Tymoshenko Turchynov more and more leaned toward the Poroshenko’s wing. Staying in the Security Council led him to become more pro-Poroshenko’s than pro-Avaakov. Therefore, the appearance of Turchynov in European Solidarity is not such a sensation. Everything looks quite logical. Image of Turchynov corresponds to the image of Poroshenko, I mean those images that were formed after 2014," adds Bohdan Petrenko to the above.

The ideal second role

So, they are somewhat similar - the former president Poroshenko and the former secretary of the NSDC (who worked with him) Turchynov. But there are many similar people, why exactly him?

There are a number of reasons for this. Firstly, a set of those qualities that Turchynov’s nature demonstrates.

"Turchynov is a person who is not too limited by moral reservations, but effective as an organizer. And for such people it is especially unpleasant to be out of the game. They take painful temporary disqualification. Therefore, I think that Turchynov was made a pretty decent offer that satisfied both sides. Because Poroshenko just does not have a powerful figure on the head of the election headquarters. As a pragmatic politician, he made the right choice,"says the head of the Third Sector Center Andriy Zolotarev.

Secondly, the relative "modesty" of our hero. He will not try to bite off a large piece of cake at once.

Related: Danylyuk's video on missing servers has nothing to do with National Security Council situation room, - Turchynov

Turchynov’s ambitions do not go beyond the “gray cardinal” incarnation. He was already a speaker and acting president. It looks like he does not strive to become the first person. That is, to be not even an official first person, but a frontman of some political force - he doesn’t want that. What does he need in return? To be like Oleksandr Volkov (remember this "director of the parliament"?) or like Yermak. That is a person who rarely goes out in public but decides all questions. He doesn’t have leadership ambitions, but he has a desire to influence the process politically,” Bogdan Petrenko is convinced.

He adds: “Turchynov is not the first to head Poroshenko’s headquarters. His organizational, managerial abilities are well known. Poroshenko’s managerial line-up will be only aggravated by Turchynov."

Thus, the probability of holding parliamentary elections is the number three reason to invite Turchynov to the game. After all, he is, as already mentioned above, both convenient and safe to use. Convenient, because he has good functionality, and safe, because he will not want more than it is allowed to want.

Remember the 2008 Kyiv mayor’s elections, where Turchynov participated?” asks the director of the Institute for Global Strategies Vadym Karasev. “He is a good organizer, but not a charismatic person. He’s unlikely to apply for a position where he could be number one. Because he’s the best second number. Both in Tymoshenko’s team and in Poroshenko’s team, he was the best supporting actor. After all, in Hollywood, you can get an Oscar for the supporting role."

What brought Turchynov and Poroshenko together?” the expert further argues. “Well, firstly, nobody canceled the local elections. Someone needs to organize them. Secondly, there is a need to join the nationalist forces.” There are no more competitors in this field. Thirdly, autumn is coming soon, and you can prepare for difficult times now. There may be mass protests against the backdrop of economic problems and falling social standards. Neither protests nor early parliamentary elections are possible."

Message for Zelensky: Think

Maybe then in the early parliamentary elections, Turchynov will be handed his cherished statuette. And maybe not even him alone. Because it is unlikely that Turchynov came to Poroshenko without his own support group.

Will the former People’s Front transfer to the Poroshenko’s team? Perhaps. Not necessarily top-notch, iconic people. But some politicians, like parts of the electorate, simply will have no other choice. Democratic forces have recently been represented just by European Solidarity, because the same Holos has lost its support,” says Bogdan Petrenko.

And his colleague Andriy Zolotarev believes that Turchynov will not spend energy on reanimating his former brainchild - the Narodnyi Front. But this does not mean that he will not gather other people.

“Turchynov will not try to restore the Narodnyi Front. What has already died, has died. But he will act, trying to break into the role of at least the second figure and taking into account the new conditions. But this will be later. Because now his main thing is to enter the game," the political scientist believes.

He adds that “this is a rather alarming signal for Zelensky. In the sense that he will have very hot autumn. The main task of Turchynov as head of the staff, I think, will be to consolidate the protest electorate around Poroshenko. That will undoubtedly hit the incumbent president."

But "Zelensky will not do anything about it. What can he do? Is it just to take for granted that Poroshenko is preparing for a serious political season, it’s not without reason that our Maidan begins this season ..."

New Maidan will begin, or will not begin - it is still unknown, but Olexander Turchynov will definitely begin the next round of his political career. Because the decision on his new position has already been officially adopted. "It’s already possible to publicly say what we are enjoying the last weeks – Bloody  Pastor returns," MP Iryna Gerashchenko said on her Facebook.

Will Turchynov be “bloody” or “gray” - time will tell. His countdown, in fact, has already begun, because the local elections are just around the corner. Unless they will be delayed because of the coronavirus, but then new scripts will be written with new heroes in line for the Oscars.

Related: Ukraine's Security Service conducts search at Turchynov and Partners law firm

 

 

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