Read original article at 112.ua
Today you can argue with me, but now the export of labor has become the main source of receiving currency for Ukraine. And this factor will be further strengthened in the coming decades. In this situation, it is important to monitor the movement of money from migrant workers, and, thus, it will be possible to understand what the currency market of Ukraine will face in the future.
Look, if there were no money from our guest workers, the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine would have long been more than 50 UAH per dollar. And Ukraine could not boast of GDP growth of 3.1% for the first quarter of 2018, and it would be impossible to give almost one billion dollars for the old loans of the IMF so that at the same time the hryvnia revalued, and not devalued. This is our economy.
For the first quarter of 2018, according to the National Bank, through official channels Ukraine (bank accounts and payment systems) received 2.6 billion dollars, which is 34% more than in 2017, and 75% more than for a similar period of 2015. The growth is impressive. But this is only the official channels for transferring money, how many of it came through unofficial channels, you can only approximately calculate. Some experts call the figures from 30 to 50% of the official amount. Anyway, this is a large amount, which is twice as high as all foreign investments over the same period.
The main supplier of currency to Ukraine is now Poland, having put Russia to the second place. For the first quarter of 2018 Ukraine received $ 865 million from Poland, and only $ 300 million from Russia. This is largely due to the fact that some Ukrainian migrant workers have changed Russia to Poland. Salary in Poland, even for guest workers, is 40% more than in Russia. The second factor is a ban on the operation of Russian payment systems on the territory of Ukraine, and therefore some guest workers now simply carry money home in "pockets". And it is understandable that part of the Ukrainian migrant workers with their families moved to Russia for permanent residence and now they do not transfer money to Ukraine. Now all the hope of our country is on the EU and the US market.
In the first quarter of 2018, Ukraine received 192 million dollars from the US with the help of Ukrainian migrant workers, which is 29% more than in the same period last year. Now, indeed, many of our people have received legal work in the United States. As a rule, they are IT specialists, but many Ukrainians in the United States work in the pharmaceutical and chemical industries and even in space exploration. The US has become more loyal to labor migrants from Ukraine, and our specialists can compete in the US market.
Another interesting trend is observed in the sphere of export of services from Ukraine. The inflow of private currency transfers from the Czech Republic, Germany, Italy and even Turkey and the United Arab Emirates has grown substantially. It is clear that most of the Ukrainian migrant workers are oriented towards the EU countries, but at the same time new countries are being developed. In some cases, it is easier to get work in Turkey and the UAE than in Germany or the Czech Republic. People are looking for new areas for work.
It is really a good trend that the population of Ukraine does not expect for a miracle, but with their own hands creates a miracle in Ukraine. This is the only way to really revive the economy of Ukraine after the Maidan and make an economic miracle without stupid advice from the IMF and our bad reformers. In many respects the success of the export of labor is an example of the fact that all these senseless conversations of our politicians about reforms, about the fight against corruption, about the growth of Ukraine's investment attractiveness are close to stupidity and fantasies. If the Ukrainian authorities do not understand what and how to do, the Ukrainians themselves find ways and methods to solve these problems, and they decide well. If this trend continues, and it really has great chances to only grow in the future, then Ukraine can really achieve and 4-5% of GDP growth only through the export of labor. Moreover, in Ukraine foreign trade is always decreases, but the money of guest workers is always a plus.