What to happen with hryvnia exchange rate in coming days?

Author : Olexiy Doroshenko

Source : 112 Ukraine

Short-term devaluation of the hryvnia after the imposition of martial law is an absolutely normal reaction of any business that does not understand what is happening
12:30, 28 November 2018

In many currency exchange points, the dollar exchange rate exceeded 30 UAH in the morning, but then it decreased every 10 minutes. So for today, we see that the exchange rate is rolling back to the same mark from which it started yesterday. This suggests there was a lack of understanding and panic in the stock and financial markets, and now this process goes back to the previous course. And, most likely, it will proceed further according to a moderate scenario.

In a negative scenario, if the situation with uncertainty will be longer, then we would fall into the trap when companies cannot send products to Ukraine because they cannot buy currency. At the same time, Ukrainian companies that sell food and goods would stop selling them in anticipation of a higher price and in a misunderstanding of what to do next. We could get a situation when the stores have empty shelves, while there is no supply of products because no one understands what will happen next in the economy and with the exchange rate. Today, all companies are oriented towards this rate, even those that produce our Ukrainian product: potatoes, beets, carrots.

Short-term devaluation of the hryvnia after the imposition of martial law is an absolutely normal reaction of any business that does not understand what is happening. The state had to be prepared for these scenarios, and yesterday the head of the National Bank, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, and the Ministry of Economic Development were supposed to speak and explain all the things that today are incomprehensible. For example, yesterday, many businessmen asked what to do with force majeure, because martial law under any contract, both domestic and international, is force majeure. Accordingly, yesterday, many foreign companies did not ship products to domestic companies without prepayment. And they were right, because the National Bank, not understanding what would happen next, could simply stop selling the currency.

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But today the situation has been resolved. Unfortunately, we have not yet heard some of the representatives. Ministry of Agrarian Policy should have stated that they have enough products, a reserve in order to stabilize the situation if there is martial law, both for the mobilization and for delivery to regular stores. At the same time, the Ministry of Economic Development today made a statement that, according to force majeure, everything seems to be normal. But what will happen tomorrow? This will greatly influence the international contracts of Ukrainian companies with the world.

Today, we have the fact that the deliveries of most companies are normal, because the rate has risen by 4-5% and, most likely, will return to the starting point. In these conditions, all deliveries will go without any problems. I think that already tomorrow morning we will see the same exchange rate marks with which we started yesterday morning.

Regarding cooperation with the IMF, I saw only a statement that a tranche could be provided. In fact, nothing has changed. At the same time, we did not hear the statement of the IMF from the USA itself, we heard their opinion from Kyiv. Today I would like to hear the opinion of the IMF from Washington. No one has yet provided us with a billion, and there are no guarantees for this. Although we now need it very much, because these panic moods, however small they may be, need to be eliminated. I think that the martial law will not affect our lives in any way, because of international support which continues.

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