What to expect from meeting in Minsk concerning situation in Avdiivka?

Author : Roman Bezsmertnyi

Source :

The former representative of Ukraine in the political subgroup on Donbas issue Roman Bezsmertnyi explained what results can be expected from the meeting in Minsk regarding the situation in Avdiivka
23:43, 31 January 2017

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112 Agency

Ambassador Roman Bezsmertnyi in the studio of 112 Ukraine

Aggravation of situation in Donbas is typical for now, before the meeting in Minsk. Usually, as soon as such a meeting is planned, the aggravation occurs. But expecting that the meeting in Minsk will answer to all questions related to the current exacerbation, it means deceiving yourself.

If we assess the current situation in Avdiivka, than in Minsk two positions will face. The first position, which will be pushed by Russian, is based on the fact that Ukraine is on the offensive. The second position (that is Ukrainian position) will be based on the fact that the militants from the weapons banned by formal agreements, which were signed in Minsk, and breaking them, are firing on Ukrainian territory. As a result, this leads to an exacerbation of the conflict. With such starting positions to speak about the possibility to stabilize the situation ... I do not believe in it. What is possible as a maximum? It is possible to reach agreement on the evacuation of people.

Related: Donbas: Avdiivka under tank, mortar and artillery fire

And we should not exclude the option that it would lead to the collapse of the Minsk-2. But there’s one nuance... Everything happened so that all the participants who are involved in this conflict will gravitate to its preservation. We see no accident in the activation of the OSCE, the Russian side, Poroshenko's visit to Berlin. All this suggests that in this situation, all participants will save this area.

There are three components which it is necessary to pay attention to, and on which we see a very little effect. First, it is the informing of society. There are certain gaps. I use the information from both sides. The second action is the decision of political bodies (Security Council, the president and the government). We can not see these solutions for two days. And the third - it is operational and tactical control of troops (General Staff). In this respect, it seems to me, the steps are being made. Another thing is the level of which it is hardly appropriate to inform the public.

Related: Diplomatic front: Actions of Ukraine's MFA after attacks in Avdiivka

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Related: Security Service records crimes committed by militants in Avdiivka


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