Untouchable Ukrainian oligarchs vs. attacked middle class

Author : Volodymyr Dubrovsky

Source : 112 Ukraine

The war with Ukraine's middle class has reached the "hot" phase
10:09, 28 December 2016

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Kyiv downtown: volunteer battalions came to protect local entrepreneurs from the cops and chavs. Some people were injured. The war with the middle class has reached the "hot" phase.
Previously, there were 3200 UAH "minimum salary," RFBs for the "household appliances", the attempt to restrict parcels sending, ERUs for jobless entrepreneurs, the right of local authorities to verify the employment relationship, attacks against the IT companies, persistent attempts to eliminate or at least, dilute simplified taxation.

Related: "Oligarchic deal" or "salvation of state": Ukraine's budget 2017

Increasing tariffs, without compensation for the middle class could be also called unfriendly act. Fighters with the "shadow economy" somehow notice only small mass violations and just ignore offshore "tax pits", "kickbacks," and so on; they are already rubbing their hands in anticipation of the access to the databases of "Privatbank." They have big plans for 100% fiscalization of cash payments, as well as indirect methods of individuals income control.

And all this is happening on the background of untouched "oligarchs" of all kinds, ranging from DTEK, for which National Energy and Utilities Regulatory Commission of Ukraine headed by former manager of "Roshen" has approved some of the highest rates in the region, Privatbank, whose debt we are now forced to pay; these schemes work at the level of local monopoly too.
Related: Oligarch Firtash hesitates to return to Ukraine due to persecution by government

This is happening against the backdrop of the ongoing bacchanalia of tax and public utilities employees and bribers of all sorts.  Yes, of course, each of us is a pert of some criminal scheme.  Even if you did not take a bribe, you definitely gave it; if you did not carry contraband, you bought it, even if you did not steal, you have underpaid the taxes. That is the way we live.
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Nestorivska expert group called it a "contract of corruption consensus." But no matter how vile is this social pact for us, it should could not be destroyed haphazardly, but strictly from the top down, otherwise the entire structure would inevitably collapse and bury everyone under.
However, instead of coordinated work on dismantling rotten parts, we have chaotic spontaneous process, leaded by the lobbying interests of big and medium-sized businesses; "political expediency", as seen by political strategists with a horizon of a few months; primitive views of the creditors/donors/advisors; bias of the population.

Related: Ukraine: top resignations of 2016

I wonder what those undoubtedly clever people, close to the current government in the broadest sense, think? I mean those who are obliged to watch forwards and predict the future?
Why do not they raise concerns, when the middle class is unfaithfully used in solving the problems of the oligarchs or the poor?  Or when the government cuts off the branch on which it is sitting? Maybe, they are just not heard, or no one wants to listen to them?

After all, only a blind man does not understand that the middle class is almost the only support the current government. The middle class is vulnerable, so it needs at least a relative stability. At the same time, it is the only player who really has a vested interested in the reforms. In other words, it is the only player who wants an evolutionary way to implement and consolidate the gains of the Revolution.

Related: Ukrainian government publishes list of main achievements of 2016

Civil Society, perpetrator of the revolution and reforms promoter, is also part of the middle class, the most active and expert-oriented tasks performer. And the government somehow acted in this direction - and this is actually the support from the middle class.

The other socio-economic groups hate the current government, and as soon as possible, they want to swept it away: no matter how much populist handouts it does, paternalists still prefer "professionals" in this ignoble sphere.

Therefore, the key to its survival is in the hands of the middle class, which does not even necessarily organize a new Maidan: it simply refuses to support the government, and the rest would be done by itself.

I am far from adoring Poroshenko, although I respect the him, but now I can accurately recognize that the current government is today’s second best, when viewed in terms of political economy.

Related: 2016 in review: Ukraine's main economic results

Yes, this is a very cynical science that does not recognize the empty dreams, complacency and wishful thinking. Speaking realistically, omitting tales about the mythical "well-meaning dictator," this government, in the broad sense, somehow moves the country forward, albeit slowly, inconsistently, "two steps forward, and one step back."

This system might be replaced by the pro-Kremlin union of revenge-seekers and populists, or by the inadequate marginal radicals. Both of them mean something bad, or even something worse, the country's slide into chaos, beloved by the north-eastern neighbor. With all the further consequences.
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So, if a suicide attack on the middle class continues at the same pace, everyone will be disappointed in  the current government, and the state as such. We cannot predict exactly in what form this will happen and when, but the consequences do not take long to wait.

Alas, this situation resemble the spring of 2010, when the first steps of our chavish president, indicated on a new revolution, a bloody revolution! It was hard to believe, and accept the idea that a peaceful life of Ukraine came to end. Nevertheless, the cynics of science is to give sober forecasts and anticipate from fatal errors.

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Cees Boogaart

Age: 64

Gender: М

Member since: 06.12.2016

Messages: 129

From whence: , Netherlands

28 December 2016, 10:45
All oligarch's assets should be nationalized, and if they keep working there they should be given a fair salary for it, revenue's should be earmarked for pensions-social security for the up to modal (in most countries in EU thats 85% !) (yes, even Poroshenko's to avoid conflict of interest) Every country should have in its constitution a paragraph against terrorisme both violent and financial. Fraud and corruption is financial terrorism. Putting both in constitution prevents costly and long courtcases. When caught on this however small fraud or corruption, punishement is mentioned also and should include: losing civil rights (voting, becoming civil servant, politician and )(goverment) job for certain time, seizure of all assets of corrupt person and closest family,, for violent terrorism that can be extended to entire family, and losing second (if any) nationality and more..Harsh times ask for harsh measures.
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