In recent years, Ukraine has been developing according to the “Ampere rule.” Ampere's Law states that for any closed loop path, the sum of the length elements times the magnetic field in the direction of the length element is equal to the permeability times the electric current enclosed in the loop. The "rule" helps to determine the direction of vector movement, including the "orientation of the base." This is important to understand the fact that more than 40 million people are inside the political-economic “gimlet point,” persistently moving down to the full depreciation of the human infrastructure and economic potential of the country. Together with the general “baggage,” the power in the face of “political elites” also moves down. What is becoming commonplace today was still impossible yesterday. Trump and Merkel "discussed the prospects for reforms in Ukraine" at the G20 meeting in Osaka... Without Ukraine itself. Ten years ago it would have been considered a bad political joke.
The UN has prepared a World Population Prospects demographic report. The main challenge of the world economy is population growth and the need to constantly socialize it. A key challenge for developed countries is labor immigration and the crisis in the domestic labor markets. But it is also an opportunity to overcome the aging of the population and increase the competitiveness of the economy through cheaper labor.
Ukraine has faced completely different challenges. We are in a state of hybrid third demographic transition. Why hybrid? In the classic version at this stage, life expectancy increases and fertility decreases. In Ukraine, the birthrate is decreasing, but at the same time, life expectancy is much lower than in developed countries, especially among men. Ukrainians give birth rarely and die before they reach 70 years of age (men).
Let us go back to the UN report. According to international analysts, in 2050 the population of our country will be reduced to 35.2 million (when analyzing this indicator, it should be taken into account that the UN is convinced that there are still almost 44 million Ukrainians). And by 2100, the depopulation process will lead to a reduction in the number of up to 24 million people.
Let's try to verify this data using simple linear functions. Let us take the reduction of the population over the past three years, derive the arithmetic average and put into account the hypothesis that until 2050 these rates of decline will be constant.
By 2050, the population of Ukraine would be reduced to 36 million, which roughly corresponds to the UN data (from the current 42.4 million). In 1990, there were 51.5 million of us. The depth of depopulation will be more than 15 million people or 30% of the baseline level. It is difficult to find such terrifying examples in modern history.
At the same time, even taking into account the toxicity of medical reform, life expectancy will slowly but still increase. In such a model, the population over 65 will exceed 10 million by 2050 and will be 28% of the population compared to the current 16%, that is, the social burden on the budget (even in the context of the payment of minimum pensions and subsidies) will increase by about two times compared to today's level.
According to UN forecasts, the population will increase in two-thirds of the 235 countries and areas of residence, with 40 growth rates of 50% or more, and 19 states will double their population. In 55 countries, this figure will either decrease or will leave at the “freezing point”. The highest level of depopulation (minus 20% or more) will take place in Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Ukraine, and the Wallis and Futuna islands. The problems of the three European "dwarfs" will be minimized by the common EU labor market and the ability to attract migrant workers. Ukraine is the only large country in the world that would face a catastrophic decline in population. Key factors of the demographic crisis are low fertility and high rates of labor migration abroad.
Assessing the net influx of migrants into Ukraine, the UN proceeded from the official data, according to which this indicator is still positive for us. Unfortunately, the UN did not take into account our specifics: millions of migrants, even those who have been abroad for more than a year, retain their Ukrainian passport, although from the point of view of fulfilling civic duties, in particular on paying taxes, they do not differ from those who have officially changed their place of residence. Given that in the future they would be eligible for subsidies, pensions, and benefits, this format is even worse for the country, and only the All-Ukrainian population census can establish the real picture.
Although, given the general trend towards simplification and flattening of the profile of the Ukrainian economy, everything is logical here. In recent years, the share of agriculture and the extractive industry in the GDP structure has increased from 13 to 16-17% or 4%. With such dynamics, by 2050, this indicator may well increase by another 1.5-2 times. With such a structure of the economy, a large population seems to be superfluous.
The next stage would be dispossession of the peasants’ land as a result of the "land reform" and further dissolution of rural citizens in large Ukrainian cities and migration to the West. As a result, in about thirty years about 25-30 million people would remain in Ukraine, a third of whom would be people over 65. The raw material rent of some 4-5 FIGs would be enough for providing them with minimum pensions.