Tu-154 crash is investigated quickly, but on real causes of accident we will find out much later

Author : Yevhen Marchuk

Source :

Such an attack, after the murder of Russian Ambassador in Turkey would be a very ominous sign for Russia in connection with its participation in the war in Syria
19:30, 26 December 2016

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112 Agency

Russians investigate the Tu-154 crash over the Black Sea very quickly, and I’ll tell you why. I had to lead twice the investigation of aircraft accidents with loss of people and aircraft - once over the sea, and another time - on land. And I know what it is.

So, the crash occurred with the Russian-made aircraft in the Russian zone of airspace control. The crew was completely Russian. If the aircraft was in the management of the Ministry of Defense of Russia and had the status of military transport aircraft of the Armed Forces, neither Eurocontrol nor ICAO may not be involved in this investigation. Let's hear what Russia would say on this point: was it a civil or military aircraft. It is important.

Russian services quickly will find the two flight recorders and decipher the recordings. If the crew was killed instantly and at the same time, it is unlikely that any of their words would be on the recordings. The decipherment of the second flight recorder will take more time, but it is very important for the experts.

Several hundred parameters of activities of almost all aircraft systems from engine start to the last seconds will give professionals a lot of important information. There is a computer program which, after analysis of both black boxes can fully restore, including visually, the entire flight of aircraft from start until the last seconds, with per-second output on the screen of the vision of aircraft on the terrain, all the parameters of management systems and the functioning of the airplane and all the talks of the crew. It can also set the exact time, speed and depth of the depressurization.

Related: Russia's Defense Ministry denies Tu-154 passengers had life jackets on

As a rule, two dozen subcommittees of professionals of the highest level of the most different fields of knowledge related to the incident will be created. Even ornithologists are involved in the study of how properly ornithological service of the airport operated: which birds and when live in and near the airport, when and how they nest (there was a case of nesting in the engine of standing "near the fence" aircraft), which are the most dangerous for the birds predators (what is their visual configuration and what sounds they make) and much more. In this investigation there are no trifles.

Russian services have extensive experience of such investigations, and they will quickly find and extract from the water all the debris and parts of the aircraft. The area is relatively small and the depth is not critical. In addition, there are no fast streams. I think they will find the bodies of all the victims and thoroughly examine them to identify the fragments in the bodies and identify the true causes of death (in the plane, or in the sea), it depends on the water in the lungs. And if a fragment is found, services will know the place of that person in the plane and the angle of injury...

All identified parts of the aircraft will be laid out on the exact frame of the aircraft on a scale of 1 to 1, and experts will restore the physics of destruction of aircraft. Of course, all the services and systems associated with the provision of the technical condition of the aircraft and preparing it is to this flight will be disassembled to pieces. Similarly, the chief designer and chief engineer of the manufacturer of this particular aircraft will also be involved. Version of pilot mistake will be investigated very thoroughly.

It will be also carefully checked the activities of all flight support services and especially all ground services, and especially the safety in all stages: preparation and security of the aircraft, fuel quality, delivery of luggage and passengers aboard. There will investigate many other factors - from the weather conditions (atmosphere) in the zone of disaster to the biographies of all the passengers...

Related: Russia’s Tu-154 plane’s fuselage found in Black Sea

Of course, the Russian FSB will accurately work on different versions, including a terrorist attack, but they would not make messages about it. Such an attack, after the murder of Russian Ambassador in Turkey would be a very ominous sign for Russia in connection with its participation in the war in Syria.

Russian specialists rather quickly will find out the true cause of the disaster, but the full investigation will not be completed soon. The state commission is investigating the causes (the physics) of disaster and the investigation committee, using materials of the State Commission, in addition to the reasons will know about the perpetrators and will send materials of the case to the court.

The full official information about the real causes of the accident we will find out much later.

Related: Tu-154 crash is very similar to terrorist attack made in retaliation for Syria

Related: Crash of Russia’s Tu-154 in Black Sea: 11 of 92 bodies found, - Defense Ministry

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