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Apparently, the "Ukrainian factor" has become for Donald Trump a serious obstacle to resolving numerous geopolitical problems: for example, issues with Russia on Iran in the context of the situation in Syria and ensuring the security of Israel. Even the head of the European Council, Donald Tusk, said last week after the NATO summit: "President Trump does not hide that he is less enthusiastic about Ukraine and he had been very sympathetic to the fact that, to put it mildly, Russia has done in Ukraine." Yes, this Trump-Putin meeting in Helsinki is unlikely to be something good for the Ukrainian political establishment. Well, if so, is it not time for Ukraine to develop economic relations in the Asian direction?
Moreover, now we are in a very difficult economic situation. But do the authorities have a plan on preventing a sharp drop in the standard of living of the population and save the Ukrainian economy in the event of an even more acute crisis? Seems like they do not. What should we do? I would propose to develop and strengthen relations primarily with China. Why don’t we diversify our trade and economic relations? It is high time to look in the Asian direction. In addition, the countries of Asia, especially China, are developing much faster than the countries of Europe and the United States.
By the way, on July 16, there was a significant meeting (which for some reason remained in the shadow), during which the leaders of the EU and the PRC have signed several memorandums of understanding related to cooperation in trade, investment, and regulation. Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang said: "Today we have discussed the bilateral issues and agreed to counteract protectionism together." Now we are left alone with our problems caused by the cancellation of US privileges for the import of 155 goods from Ukraine and the introduction of customs duties on imports of steel and aluminum from our metallurgical plants.
Therefore, we also need Hong Kong and Singapore, Japan and South Korea. We need a full access to these markets, including stock and borrowing, which would allow access to a large number of foreign investors. But, unfortunately, our ministers began to notice these opportunities quite late. And this is their big mistake. This is especially acute when there is less and less room for optimism. By the end of 2018, we will see the economic result. I am afraid that there will be little optimism about industrial production data, attracting foreign direct investment, business growth and so on.
In this situation, Ukraine should try to omit taking more loans, increase the growth rates of the Ukrainian economy and reduce corruption costs. The business will regulate the rest. For two years I have been cooperating with the Chinese colleagues in Kyiv, and I tried to systematize the main causes of the Ukrainian economic crisis. And here are the key outcomes of the current crisis situation:
- structural changes in the capital market have not been carried out, and therefore there is now no internal incentive and mechanisms for the development;
- strengthening the role of the state in the banking sector resulted in a weakening of competition and an increase in the number of outstanding problems;
- structural changes in the stock market associated with low efficiency, due to organizational and technical and technological backwardness, have not been implemented, but were pushed into the depths;
- a favorable regime for attracting direct foreign investments has not yet been created;
- control over compliance with the requirements of the legislation and principles of resource, credit, and accounting of the commercial banks is weak;
- state bodies do not provide an effective response to the build-up of corporate external borrowings;
- an absence of an independent justice and courts;
- raiding, lack of transparency in the adoption of power and legislative decisions.
And these Ukrainian factors make useless any knowledge of economic laws, and also devalue any arbitrarily perfect systems of control and regulation. Now, our authorities say that by the end of 2018 dollar rate would reach 30 UAH, and raise gas prices for the population would grow by another 18%. Naturally, people cannot understand whether the crisis in the past or still a crisis in the present?
Now, in my opinion, everyone understands that these poorly educated top officials have learned to compensate for budget losses only at the expense of depreciating the hryvnia, that is, the loss of the solvency of each Ukrainian family. Therefore, Ukraine needs some unusual approach to overcome our great crisis, it should re-evaluate all the old dogmas and stereotypes. In this regard, we should not look for the “guilty ones,” it is better to develop mutually beneficial cooperation with the European Union, the United State,s and many Asian countries. How soon will this happen? Just wait and see.