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Creating “Malorossiya” is not as harmless as it might seem at first glance. The statement on the creation of a new "state", coupled with the deployment of the new Russian 8th Army on the borders with Ukraine, which is uncharacteristic for peacetime, and even headed by generals with combat experience, indicates on the possibility of a direct offensive by this army, which suddenly became "The army of Malorossiya."
Today, according to the websites of the self-proclaimed "Donetsk People’s Republic" (DPR), a historic event took place in the capital of DPR. Political declaration on the creation of a new state that will become the legal successor of "Ukraine" has been signed. The new state formation should consist of 19 regions of the former Ukraine and be called Little Russia with Center in Donetsk, and Kyiv remains "a historical and cultural center without the status of the capital city."
As reported by the "media" of the self-proclaimed republics, "Malorossiya" is seen as a federal state with broad regional autonomy, in which the right of regional languages is guaranteed to be preserved, and the flag of Bogdan Khmelnytsky is recognized as the state flag.
According to DPR media and especially Russian websites, "creation of Malorossiya does not contradict the Minsk agreements," which is more than strange given the uncertain status of Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics themselves.
In fact, it can have 3 explanations:
1) another unmotivated trick of Alexander Zakharchenko, like plans to seize London;
2) a propagandistic action symbolizing the unity of the majority of the regions of Ukraine, whose representatives were allegedly in Donetsk at the signing ceremony, against the political regime that exists in Ukraine today in the person of President Petro Poroshenko;
3) preparations for the escalation and creation of "Malorossiya" by armed means, and, with the use of Russian troops.
The first two options do not threaten Ukraine, and an attempt to "LNR" to disown plans to create Little Russia speaks in favor of the first option.
However, third option is the most undesirable, but still quite probable.
"We offer the people of Ukraine a peaceful way out of the difficult situation, without war, this is our last offer not only to the Ukrainians, but to all countries that supported the civil war in Donbass. I am convinced that we will do everything possible and impossible," head of "DNR" said.
The question arises: why for the last few months the armed forces of the self-proclaimed republics have been failing in most of the battles with Ukraine’s Army? Yes, local battles, in general, do not change anything, but still.
A classic reason for foreign armed intervention in the country's internal affairs at all times was the creation of a "state" or government that, when created with the participation of the future interventionist, asks the ally for help in establishing its "legitimate" authority.
Actually, in some ways in Ukraine it has already happened in March 2014, when the late Russian plenipotentiary representative in the United Nations, Vitaly Churkin, read out a document called "Yanukovych's letter" with a request for the introduction of Russian troops into the territory of Ukraine.
This project of the letter of Yanukovych in March 2014 could transform into the project "Malorossiya" of the summer of 2017.
And then we should return to March 17, 2017, when, according to Russian media reports, the creation and deployment of the 8th combined arms army with a headquarters in Novocherkassk, Rostov Region, began in the Southern Federal Military District.
At the time, the army was to include 150 motorized infantry brigade and the 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade. Deployment of armies in peacetime is very uncharacteristic, but according to the Russian media it is part of the strategic task of creating self-sufficient combined arms alliances in all strategic directions set by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
July 5, Kommersant reports that President Vladimir Putin has appointed officers of the command of the 8th Army.
This was reported by a source in the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, stressing that the selection has been conducted for several months, and part of the future command staff participated in the strategic command post exercise "Kavkaz-2016". All organizational arrangements to be completed before the end of 2017, after which the Eighth Army will begin to carry out the tasks in full.
Appointments have been given to experienced commanders who have experience of real combat operations, as well as peacekeeping operations.
Major-General Sergei Kuzovlev, who participated in two Chechen campaigns, became commander of the army, Major-General Oleg Tsekov was appointed chief of staff and first deputy of Kuzovlev. In turn, one of Tsekov's deputies is Major-General Gennady Anashkin, who has also participated in both Chechen companies, commanded the Russian Airborne Parachute Battalion during the peacekeeping mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1999-2000, and in 2008 commanded the 104th The Guards Airborne Assault Regiment (76th Guards Airborne Assault Division, Pskov). Another deputy of Tsekov is Colonel Arutyun Darbinian that presumably took part in the operations of Russian Armed Forces in Syria.
Strange is the information about the readiness to start fulfilling the tasks in full by the end of the year. What challenges might be in 2017-2018?
March 18, 2018, the next presidential election should take place in the Russian Federation, during which the current head of state, Vladimir Putin, is preparing to win. This task is complicated by the apparent deterioration of the socio-economic situation in the country, which is caused by international sanctions and the fall in oil prices, as well as the activation of Russia's foreign policy.
A rapid growth of the rating might occur as a result of a breakthrough in some area. An economic breakthrough in such a short time is objectively impossible, so a plan of the renewed “Ukraine-Malorossiya” might be a good option.