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Why Putin concentrates troops on the border with Ukraine? Why he needs all these military maneuvers, which must demonstrate willingness to military clashes? Why Putin's mercenaries arrange permanent provocations at the demarcation line in Donbas? What is the real goal of provocations in Crimea?
One can find many answers for these questions, but they are usually sought in the military-political sphere. Perhaps Putin is trying to strengthen the "negotiating positions" of new-established gangster republics and force Kyiv to give them that autonomy, which Moscow is talking so much about? Maybe he blackmails the West and is trying to force it to lift the sanctions - in exchange for a peace? Perhaps he is still thinking about how to make the "corridor" to the annexed Crimea? Or is he actually preparing for war?
The answer to the last question - this is a clue. It's not even about whether the Russian president is preparing for war or not, the fact is that often the reason for generating instability could be the instability itself.
Put yourself in the place of any of the Western - and not just Western investors - who want to invest in Ukraine. Yes, of course, they will talk about corruption, imperfect judicial system and other pleasures of the transition period. But with all this the investor is facing in many countries of the "third world". In some cases, these circumstances discourage investors, in others – the special amount to "ensure" productive work with the authorities and the courts is simply included to the amount of the investment. The question is what the purpose of investment is. Of course, the creator of modern industry would not come to the corrupted country. On the other hand, corruption will not stop someone who is interested in raw materials and resources. Until recently, many of foreign investors have come to Russia - even at the risk of loss of capital. Not because there is no corruption. But because there are large amounts of oil.
But the war - is another matter entirely. The course and outcome of the war are still unknown to people. "No one knows when it will start. War is not suitable even for short-term investments. Who will return your investment? Who can guarantee the safety of the company or the mine? In front of tank attack or shelling all residents are equal, in front of rocket fire - even more equal. What kind of business can you run in Aleppo?
The threat of war tightens investment territory. And, of course, if Crimea would enter the circle of instability - in addition to Donbas – then the risky areas for investment will be considered not only eastern but also the southern regions of Ukraine. The center and west will remain calm - for those who think that the war will be local. And if not? Why the investors should take the risk? There are enough peaceful countries around the world.
In this way will think anyone who would like to invest in our country. Putin knows what he’s doing. And we must take into account the fact that the generation of instability is paying off, and paying off very good.
Well, we must do it at least in order not to be disappointed. I hope very much that we will achieve results in the fight against corruption, reforming the judiciary and to ensure fair conditions for investment. But while Putin will continue to generate instability, and until investors will fear of war, these investors will stop at our doorstep.