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Regarding the scandal with Onishchenko recordings we can speculate about some hidden reasons, but it is clear that these events are connected with his deprivation of parliamentary immunity, the investigation of his case, with that he was forced to hide. Naturally, so he tries to avenge with the release of compromising materials.
Perhaps, again, there we some hints from his side, but I do not know whether there were any negotiations or not, this is a very delicate thing, but maybe he was trying to, let's say, by making threats to release compromising materials to achieve cessation of the investigation.
But, it seems to me, the investigation has gone a long way and gained a public scale. Here, it would be impossible to just stop it without any consequences.
So when Onishchenko became convinced that it is impossible to use threats, he decided to make these loud statements. The revelations and so on. I tell you, I have a lot of questions about these recordings.
There is some doubt that Onischenko just could simply record Poroshenko’s or someone else’s talks in the Presidential Administration. In fact, you can probably make a record. I myself have been there at the collective meetings and was requested to hand over my phone, but the meeting was not with the president. In most cases, people gave their phones.
But when it comes to visiting the president's office, probably there is working special equipment that registers, is recording in progress or not. I do not think you can just record the conversation with the president. If this took place outside the Presidential Administration, I do not rule that this could be. Nevertheless there is some doubt.
But from the Onishchenko’s side this, of course, means revenge. Such a kind of retaliation.
And what about consequences? Of course, for Poroshenko this is the next challenge and the next problem. I don’t see it as a problem that it may lead to some direct and immediate consequences. I do not really expect this.
The main problem with Onishchenko’s scandal is in accumulating negative information: "Offshore scandal, accusations linked with NBU, now this ... Would the immune system of our president and the country cope with these accusations, scandals or not? This question is open. But when compared with 2000-2001 Melnychenko cassette scandal, in my opinion, these days we wouldn’t receive the same effect...
Over these 15 years we have been listening to different recordings and have learned so much about the different MPs and presidents, so any sensational accusations would not shock Ukrainian society. Society may indifferently respond to the incident - well, someone will make a negative assessment of the concrete politician - and stop after this. But rather, it will be the reaction of those who did not intend to vote for Poroshenko.
But, nevertheless, I do not expect some direct political and legal consequences. Maybe they’ll try to create the Investigation Committee; we’ll see how it will work.
Of course, the next scandal, the next accusations, throwing dirty laundry, appeals to Western partners - of course, it creates the image and political problems for the country's leadership, including Poroshenko. But I do not see the disastrous consequences in the near future.