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The recent polls show Tymoshenko's major advantage, the high potential of the new players, and the defeat of the former Party of Regions. The results of the poll conducted by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), published on May 7, make us think about the configuration of the 2019 elections.
Among those who have decided on whom to support and are going to vote, the leader is Yulia Tymoshenko - 16.1%. The main tasks of her team should be organizing good field structure, reducing anti-rating, and thinking over the mobilization campaign. The voter should like it, he should be brought to the site on the day of elections.
The strong side is powerful party cells on the ground. "Fatherland" (14.4% according to the poll) is one of the few parties that systematically deals with organizational construction, which enabled it to recover, including after the release of Arseniy Yatsenyuk and the company in 2014.
According to the conclusion of KIIS analysts, the difference in maintaining almost all the candidates of the next series (except for Tymoshenko) is almost within the margin of error, that is, they are more likely to divide the second place.
Anatoliy Hrytsenko has 12.7%. He has some time to create some arrangements and gain impact on the TV. "Civic position" has 11.5% - such a result is quite powerful for the brand. A threat is that people with a bad reputation might get under Hrytsenko’s flags.
Oleh Lyashko has 12.2%. Whoever becomes the president, Lyashko has every chance to gain the "golden share". His party has 11.4%, which is more than enough to get to parliament.
The rating of Petro Poroshenko (12.2%) is a real sensation of the poll. The latter probably does not believe in sociology and seeks solutions in prayers and meetings at Bankova. Staying in power makes him vulnerable to criticism, but he has a powerful influence on the media. His strategy might be increasing the influence on the media, support technology projects (which also sooner or later dream about their own game), a game of war issues.
By the way, 12.2% of Petro Poroshenko can technically melt away. For this, sociology should include Vitaliy Klitschko and Volodymyr Groysman. The mayor of Kyiv, most likely, remembers his ambitions in 2014. He has a powerful team in Kyiv, and some deputies of "Udar" are already testing the ground about the way out of the "Block of Peter Poroshenko."
The figure of Prime Minister Groysman also became very politically weighty. At local elections in 2015, people approached him under the logo of the "Vinnytsia European Strategy" (which, if necessary, easily turns into, say, the "Ukrainian European Strategy"). That is, it is about a ready-made team.
Volodymyr Zelensky has been the president of Ukraine already. In several episodes of the TV show, of course. According to the poll, 10.8% of respondents would have entrusted their vote to him. The party might gain some 8.4%.
Svyatoslav Vakarchuk has 9.6%. His potential political force was called "Block of Svyatoslav Vakarchuk" in the poll, and it might gain 8.6% of the vote. This formulation artificially pushes new political brands into the virtual association. It is more than obvious: if Vakarchuk's team does not use more simple slogans, close to the masses, then the rating will not grow.
Yuriy Boyko (8.8%) is close to Vadym Rabinovich (8.6%). A simple style of communication with the audience and clear slogans multiplied by the media presence give their fruits.
The low level of support for the former Party of Regions could be explained by the fact that the opinion poll does not include the opinions of the inhabitants of Donbas and Crimea.
For Petro Poroshenko, Yuri Boyko now remains an ideal sparring partner in the second round. However, Poroshenko needs to try very hard to bring Boyko to the second round. The votes of the inhabitants of Donbas (in case of accession), as well as IDPs, are the reserve. Observers for the elections should monitor in this direction.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or 112.International and its owners.