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The recent presidential elections in France created a new difficult situation in the European Union. Even during the debates and interviews as a pre-election race participant, Emmanuel Macron played a card of Poland to increase his rating. This situation will hit Ukraine too.
Macron, as a politician of the socialist direction, has created for himself the image of a man who wants to equate the capabilities of the EU members, because he sees it unfair that some states do not follow the common course and receive disproportionate advantages. He is convinced that, for example, Poland is moving on the wrong route, changing its own legislation in accordance with the needs, therefore wants to force it to return, imposing sanctions. By creating an alternative to Le Pen’s Euroscepticism, Macron represented a strong EU, in which states conduct a joint tax and social policy. The ruling party "Law and Justice" in Poland would not do this because it tends to form its own policy, which often goes beyond the EU.
It is interesting that Warsaw has already stated that the relatively high growth of the domestic economy is a backbone of such anti-Polish statements. Particularly positive is the situation with the IT industry. Official statistics say that the growth of the Polish economy is almost two and a half times higher than the growth of the French economy. This is due to internal reforms, which are now not supported by official Paris, because some French and foreign companies transfer their production to the territory of Poland as a result of a favorable investment climate.
Macron has already stated that his far-right rival Marine Le Pen is supported by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the leader of "Rights and Justice", putting this Polish right politician on one list with Putin and Hungarian Prime Minister Orban, who, according to the newly elected president, neglect European values.
Moreover, Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, who recently raised a wave of tensions between the EU and Poland, congratulated Macron on winning the election. This is not surprising, because from the beginning of the race he fully supported him and noted that this would be better for the whole Europe. Poland refuses to recognize Tusk as its representative, but the other states take him exactly as they hear, listening to statements about "non-European actions" of Warsaw. There is no doubt that very soon for Macron the name Tusk would change to "pressure", which could be implemented by the current government of Poland. It is obvious that Paris would not take its words back, but aims to activate the threats. Warsaw, for its part, can reasonably stand on its own positions and defend national interests. May 5-7, a poll was conducted, according to which the ruling party is gaining 35% of the vote, increasing the gap from the largest opposition party by 8%. This a definite increase compared to the previous studies. This means that there would be no concessions, because the people support the vector defined by the president, the prime minister and the parliament.
Kyiv made a bid for Tusk, explaining it with some Euro-Atlantic aspirations, which he was able to provide, but this position led Ukraine to the next crossroads with traps. If we do not choose where to go, we would be pushed away. On the one hand, there are active French, who will "press" on Ukraine-EU relations, and on the other - reliable Poles, who share a common enemy with us. "Advocate of Ukraine" would find it increasingly difficult to fulfill its "services" to protect Ukrainian interests, in which Poland itself is interested, because now it would have to concentrate all efforts on its own relations with the EU. Now the Polish government in the eyes of most of the EU countries looks almost like a dictatorial regime, and therefore no one would listen to it. True friends of Poland (for example, Hungary or Great Britain) during the voting for Tusk have already proved that the advantages gained during joint work with the majority are above the principled position with the act of solidarity.
Let us turn back to the influence of Macron's decisions on Ukraine. It could increase EU pressure on Poland, which would lead to increased confrontation and a less intense dialogue, in which Warsaw would be ready to help raise the issue of Ukraine. By the way, in this case, he would have to point to the authoritarian regime in Belarus, where human rights violations were partially brought to the background thanks to the position of Minsk on the settlement of Donbas war.
It will be even harder for Lukashenko to balance between the centers of power because of the unfriendly position of Brussels. Then he will have to take a step toward Russia. A similar situation, albeit less critical in the result, might occur with Hungary, which Macron ranked to a list of states where European values are neglected, and indicated that its prime minister supported far-right Le Pen.
The parliamentary elections are coming soon, and therefore the newly elected president should take the first radical steps to take advantage of his rating and not allow rival parties to break into the parliament. Therefore, we should expect a cold snap of relations with the above-mentioned states, and we should not forget that Ukraine is less likely to be subject of EU’s agenda.