There’s an obvious crisis in Crimea and it is not clear what to expect. After receiving the information about the deaths of two Russian soldiers – from Federal Security Service and the Ministry of Defense (how they died, and whether they are dead – it was not checked, of course), logically, it can be followed by some very strict and public steps from breaking diplomatic relations to military action. The office for three days was waiting before making a statement, and there is no doubt - the consequences are planned.
If you want to say, "It can’t be an attack from the peninsula", recall, please, how four years ago, you couldn’t even imagine the Crimean annexation and Russians fighting in eastern Ukraine. Therefore, becomes pointless to make any predictions in recent years: things we thought were impossible, became very realistic, with a transparent boundary between them. One can only speculate, but allegations of "massive shelling from the neighboring state and armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine", can be "the trigger".
Traditionally, if the Russian security forces mentioned names, they claim that the man is guilty - so be it. The court, which works only in order to legalize these statements will do its part, and this Evgeniy Panov (again – we can’t check whether he exists, is he Ukrainian military or not) will go to jail on charges of preparing terrorist attacks and the establishment of a terrorist organization. In Crimea, now appeared yet another "terrorist case" that, given the wording "persons from among the citizens of Ukraine and the Russian Federation shall be assisted in the preparation of terrorist acts, which made a confession," - - can convict anyone on the peninsula using the Russian justice system.
There are two other factors that were just a little discussed. In the autumn report on MH17 will be published. Investigation findings already seem obvious. After that, if sanctions wouldn’t become harder, then at least would remain at the same level. Not good for Moscow. Meanwhile, the economic crisis has reached the scale, which even Russian TV already cannot hide. And there are governmental and presidential elections looming in Russia. I do not want to talk about terrible, but the war with Georgia was also begun during the crisis in August eight years ago.
Finally, if you noticed, there are no more speeches about calmness on peninsula, millions of tourists and how life is good there. People usually do not come to rest to the places of hostilities. And if the Russian television has suddenly started to talk about it openly, so Russian authorities decided not be shy any longer.
But wait... Here is the head of the Federal Tourism Agency Oleg Safonov, he said: "I wish to say that the tourists, of course, do not have to change any of their plans and come to the Crimea, and rest in the Crimea." Very convincing.