Hybrid Russia: the threat is more effective than the direct action

Author : Pavlo Kazarin

Source : 112 Ukraine

All calculations of official Moscow are built on the creation of a situation of uncertainty
10:35, 13 September 2016

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hybrid war

Two years ago, the story of a hybrid war began with the annexation of Crimea. This is not surprising. You just need to understand that hybridity is perhaps the main characteristic of the Russian regime.

We try to find some historical parallels, which would help us understand what is happening. We study the history of both world wars, the personal characteristics of dictators, look for similarities in the circumstances and personalities. But the fact that Russia gave the world a new reality, in which not only the war is hybrid, but also the regime is hybrid.

Related: Putin: Russia will not give Crimea back

We are accustomed to clarity. We just cannot get used to the idea that the war cannot be formalized, like in the mid-twentieth century. We want to have precise formulations and unambiguous definitions. But it is our main astray.

All calculations of official Moscow are built on the creation of a situation of uncertainty. Just because it is much more profitable than a strictly formalized procedure.

Related: Conquering Putinism

One of the most striking example is “Yarovaya laws,” new police and counterterrorism measures that echo the sweeping powers wielded by KGB to repress dissent and opposition activists. Russia creates a situation of unpredictability, when not a single resident of the Russian Federation can be sure of his sanctity in the face of Russia Themis. That this is the logic of Russia’s Criminal Code on countering extremism – to make the laws with “blurred” notions in order to “fit” them to the situation. As a result, every Russian citizen is living with a sense of his own latent insecurity of the state apparatus. And demonstrative loyalty has become the most common way to respond to this reality.

However, the Kremlin successfully uses "a situation of uncertainty" not only in domestic policy. Immediately after the invasion of Donbas experts scratch their heads over the final goal of Moscow. A land corridor to Crimea, a full-fledged invasion, an attempt to divert attention from the annexation of the peninsula? The thing is that this invasion does not have some particular purpose. On the contrary, its goal was precisely the creation of a situation of uncertainty, which leaves a very wide room for maneuver.

Related: Trasnistria to join Russia soon

Lack of clear rules becomes the main rule. No one can say for sure what will be done tomorrow. Speaking about loyalty, it does not guarantee the absolute security. The Kremlin not only creates the rules of the game, but offers its vassals to “guess” what are these rules.

Living in suspense and with a sense of fear? Be afraid of the future that you cannot predict? Kremlin’s policy of intimidation is aimed not only at its citizens. It equally applies to Russia's neighbors.

Related: Powerlessness of “occupational psychiatry” in Crimea: Umerov’s case

The effectiveness of this method is comparable only with its immorality. Just because a permanent fear and uncertainty provides the perfect soil to start writing denunciations, or otherwise demonstrate the obedience and loyalty. It is much easier to create a threat of imprisonment for each citizen than actually put people behind the bar.

Hybrid War. Hybrid regime. Hybrid ethics. The ideal way to achieve 85% of support.

Related: Former political prisoner about hunger strike in Russian jail

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