Read original article at 112.ua
The main problem of the Ukrainian economy and its budget is not that we really need the fifth tranche of the International Monetary Fund loan in the amount of $ 1.9 billion. This is not entirely true. The main problem is that the manufacturing economy is shrinking, and we need more and more purchases in imports. In confirmation of this, even the state budget revenues for the first half of this year amounted to only 463.18 billion UAH, respectively, and the gap from the planned indicators, as reported this week in the State Treasury Service, reached 14.3 billion UAH, or 3.1%.
Therefore, to maintain stability, the Ministry of Finance needs a constant increase in borrowing, but now this will be very difficult to do. Although the National Bank expects to place our Eurobonds for $ 2.5 billion this year and $ 1.5 billion in next year. There are already enough grounds to believe that the volumes of borrowing in the world financial markets will fall in the near and medium term, which means that we have to replace them with real sector incomes and private investments in the Ukrainian joint investment market. But the Cabinet is clearly not aware how to do it, so outside the country's economy at the hands of the population and will be more than 360 billion UAH of cash.
According to the NBU, one Ukrainian now has 66 banknotes and 293 coins. Therefore, many citizens spend time in thought, how to dispose of this money at the current double-digit inflation rate. Ukrainians sincerely believe that in the future gold will cost more, and, therefore, it remains the subject of their faith. Similar to the US dollar, as the belief in the reliability of the "American" is still very strong, because the American economy is the most powerful in the world. But financial analysts are well aware that neither gold nor dollar will work in the long term.
Then what will work in the long run with income? In my personal belief, a promising business will work and make a profit. Therefore, we urgently need to develop a joint investment market in Ukraine, where citizens could purchase investment certificates of mutual funds and corporate investment fund shares with dividend payments. At the same time, it is important to diversify its investments, that is, to distribute the acquired assets to different "baskets". However, if we talk about investing in something that brings in income, then one cannot say unambiguously what is better - shares or bonds.
Therefore, if you don’t have your own business, then I advise you to purchase corporate bonds of profitable and growing Ukrainian companies. Finally, I want to emphasize once again: it does not matter how much money you have in your account, it is important that you know how to replenish it, and therefore most important to protect your savings from high inflation - it is the creation and development of a promising business. And yet, speaking frankly, it will be very difficult to withdraw our people from the state of social apathy these days, as well as to increase their business activity. Especially in conditions when the country is a step away from default, and the authorities cannot come up with anything elegant and strong to stimulate small and medium-sized businesses.
More precisely, the Cabinet will choose something simpler and easier for execution: it is to lower real wages and shift the cost of taxes into prices. But when there is no opportunity to increase the incomes of the population, then the tax base will inevitably fall. How can we get out of this difficult situation? I am convinced that in the first place we need to form the basis for long investment money: to develop the market of joint investment, insurance business, and non-government pension provision.
But, frankly speaking, it is already boring to wait for the Prime Minister to deign to say the specifics: under such a set of conditions and indicators, a winning strategy will be proposed for the development of the domestic market for joint investment and, in general, to stimulate small and medium-sized businesses in Ukraine. And so the Cabinet will implement exactly the most rational solutions. For business and citizens, everything is clear, where to run and what to do. And now what are the Ministry of Economic Development and Finance doing? They prepare various forecasts, which they then constantly review and correct. That’s all! There are no main social and economic goals.
But, apparently, people do not require explanations from political leaders, is it that the insignificant pensions and poverty of the population are for the benefit of the Ukrainian people?! At that time, as in no country of the European Union, there is such a high inflation due to the fact that their salaries are several times higher than ours. Are there any measures that are necessary to curb the negative consequences of the economic crisis in Ukraine and improve the living standards of people? Yes, there are, and these measures are well known. This is coordination of fiscal incentives, maintaining the credit market for small and medium-sized businesses, reducing the volume of troubled banks, strengthening regulation and supporting the most vulnerable segments of our society.
And, in my opinion, it is already not only economists who understand that when the hryvnia strengthens, people immediately calm down. There are many more practical, verified by practice strong economic decisions. But who will execute them in the Cabinet, will there be enough competence, even if in the holiday season they cannot solve mass problems with Ukrainian tourists? Well, let's imagine that the Verkhovna Rada will vote for the resignation of Prime Minister Groysman. Instead, a representative of the government will come again, he will start to complain in a new way, say, there is no financing for reform, and the West helps with advice only. But if the social and economic vector of Ukraine's development does not change, what our partners insist on, why should the US, the EU, and the IMF help?
So, what to do? How to involve Ukrainians in a promising business? Personally, I expect political and economic initiatives from fresh parties and social movements, without weights of the notorious past, to discuss on broader and more balanced basis ways to solve social and economic problems with the mandatory involvement of business communities in this process. Whatever you think, whatever one may say, this topic is extremely interesting and important on the eve of the presidential elections and elections to the Verkhovna Rada next year.