The Sixth Administrative Court of Appeal renounced the appeal of the National Bank of Ukraine on the recognition that its orders to audit PrivatBank were unlawful. If you decipher this decision in simple language, the court for some reason decided that the National Bank did not have the right to check PrivatBank. That is, Kolomoisky and the company do not argue with what was done in the bank.
They only say that the National Bank did not have the right to catch them by the hand. And the court agrees with them. And it recognizes the direct duty of the National Bank as illegal. But the NBU is the regulator, and checking the banks is its direct duty.
Now, there is only one step left until the recognition of the illegal nationalization of PrivatBank. Kolomoisky pulled the trigger and put it to the head of Ukraine. So now it’s really easier to negotiate.
What is the direct consequence of such a decision? At this point, there’s no such consequence. The key business is not yet being considered. And for the time being, there is still hope that Kolomoisky is simply preparing a negotiating position in this way. What is also unpleasant and threatens bad consequences, but, firstly, it will not have such a destructive effect, and secondly, it will be sometime afterward. In the future. Not tomorrow. Out of the blue.
What will happen if the decision on the illegality of Privatbank nationalization comes into force? For this, we now need only the decision on the appeal from some unknown judge. This has already been discussed and negotiated. On the one hand, this will mean the liquidation of PrivatBank with the corresponding losses for the clients of a financial institution.
And this will start the panic in the banking system and the foreign exchange market. On the other hand, it will destroy the cooperation of Ukraine with international partners - from the IMF to the EU, from the World Bank to the USA. As a result, we’ll have a full-fledged economic catastrophe. Venezuela. Ukrainian way.
Does Kolomoisky know about this? Yes. And he can raise the rate in order to put the Ukrainian government and Ukrainian society before a choice: either an economic catastrophe or a deal with him, which will allow the oligarch to justify everything he did. Unfreeze his assets. Remove the threat of retribution with Ukrainian taxpayers. And allow the elected president to explain to the people why they forgave the oligarch.
"So it was necessary", "all for the sake of the country" and similar conversations. Under the threat of a pistol at the temple, people tend to agree with the arguments of the person who holds the pistol. Moreover, the Stockholm syndrome may even occur when a person even enters the position of someone who threatens you with a weapon. We will understand him.
But if such a deal is accepted by Ukrainian society (if it suddenly accepts it!), then our western partners will never accept it and will not understand it. I mean our friends who have been supporting us for the past 5 years. And their support might cease after this.
And now the key question sounds like this: do we see a transaction scenario or a quick disaster scenario? And we do not know what scenario awaits us. The choice between tightening and blitzkrieg. Between a terrible scenario and disaster. And we do not know the decision. And this is the most frightening.
And, yes, many people who call themselves the team of the elected president, argue that Zelensky should not interfere with justice. And he should not influence the process. Beautiful position. Beautiful demagoguery. Because it can be in an ideal system and under reformed courts. But not in Ukraine. Not now. And the people who say that the president should not interfere understand what this "non-interference" means.
They are well aware that if there is no political will to stop Kolomoisky, he will receive any decision of the court in Ukraine that suits him. He can prove there that the sun rises in the West, and Kennedy killed Hontareva. And the direct task of the president, of course, is to contribute to the complete reform of the judicial system.
But so far this has not happened. While the courts are as they are, the elected president is obliged to do everything to protect the national interests of Ukraine. And if he does not do this, it will mean one thing: betrayal. The betrayal of national interests and the playing on the oligarch’s side against the people of Ukraine.