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Less than a year has left before the “battle of the Titans.” Ratings are just ratings, but the main result will be seen on the local level. That is why the current conclusions should be made from the results of elections to the united territorial communities (UTC).
Let us follow the results of the elections to the territorial communities, which took place on April 29 at 40 UTCs in 17 regions.
The results of the sociological research will be checked by the final elections in the communities. Parties and presidential candidates might measure the real state of their affairs by the "double checking." Elections to the UTC are more relevant because they show not only the perception of the particular political power but also the organizational ability to mobilize the voters. And is it important?
I think the headquarters are waiting for the big game. The motivation of those responsible persons is great – they might lead work with voters and be further promoted in 2019.
Batkivshchyna and Poroshenko's Bloc "Solidarity" compete with each other. Tymoshenko’s party (according to the results declared on their website) have received 277 seats, while the rival party has received 212. Officially, Solidarity reports on leadership in the number of UTO heads.
The results of "Nash Krai" and "Agrarian Party" are very mediocre. Serhiy Shakhov (People's Deputy and one of the main speakers of "Nash Krai") and Skotsik from the "Agrarian Party" have good ethers, but so far they have not passed the field check.
In 2019, the role of independent monitoring missions will become important. Political structures will finally try to cooperate with different Ukrainian and international observers.
Motivation is purely pragmatic – catching an opponent who works illegally by the hand or to have an independent evaluation of his work if the accusations come from competitors. Appeals about bribing the voters might become in 2019 a tool for recognizing elections (in certain areas) void. This is a good tool on a national scale. Therefore, the teams need to prepare for the protection of their data, the external experts would play an important role.
Independent organizations will also try to use political manipulation through a "tip-off" on the network of opponents and photo and video evidence about the use of illegal methods.
For example, I cannot believe that "absolute record holders" (according to Oleksiy Koshel from Ukraine’s Electorate Committee) are Batkivshchyna, "Nash Krai", and "Agrarian Party". He stated that Poroshenko’s Bloc (a briefing on the election of this party was given by well known for its methods of work in the Chernihiv region, Serhiy Berezenko) was caught only once.
This means that the committees of support for "Nash Krai", "Agrarian Party", and "Fatherland" did not work to identify and document violations, there was no cooperation with the activists.
Before the presidential elections, Yulia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko grow stronger. Tymoshenko in the opposition feels like a fish in the water. The rating is growing. Poroshenko is gradually being blown away (although he is still far from Yushchenko’s worst times). At the same time, the above-mentioned results of "Nash Krai" and "Agrarian Party" show that these "electoral machines" are quite a week on the local level. It would be difficult to oust them before the presidential elections.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or 112.International and its owners.