Catastrophe in financial market closer than it seems

Author : Olexandr Honcharov

Source :

Apparently, in the next 30-40 years, according to the predictions of the economic prophets K. Marx and N. Kondratiev, the political, geographical and climatic maps of the world will change significantly
22:32, 6 September 2017

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As experts warned, the number of natural disasters in 2017 surely beats records on the consequences of floods, earthquakes, major environmental and man-made disasters. If only there were no accidents at the nuclear power plant and default in the US. In this case, the 2017th surely will become the historical year.

And, apparently, in the next 30-40 years, according to the predictions of the economic prophets K. Marx and N. Kondratiev, the political, geographical and climatic maps of the world will change significantly. The migration of the population will significantly increase, which will be a huge problem for the host countries (worst of all, if the refugees would be detained at the borders, then they will forcefully make their way to the well-fed cities). If we observe the events taking place in the world, all of our present forebodings somehow involuntarily turn into serious assumptions.

For example, on September 3, North Korea tested a hydrogen bomb, which can be installed as a warhead for an intercontinental ballistic missile. A little earlier on August 29, North Korea once again launched a medium-range ballistic missile (it flew over the territory of Japan and fell into the Pacific Ocean), after which Kim Jong-un called it a "prelude" to a blow to American Guam. At the same time, DPRK absolutely didn’t pay attention to the UN Security Council, which at an emergency meeting on the same August day condemned the actions of Pyongyang.

Frankly, it becomes uncomfortable when you read such messages in print media or watch a similar TV report. And the catastrophe, in particular in the world financial market, is closer than it seems. Even the international rating agency S & P warned a few days ago that if the US Congress does not raise the ceiling of the national debt in the near future, the consequences will be more catastrophic than the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Another rating agency Fitch also said that it will be forced to lower the US credit rating.

This is at a time when US President D. Trump asks Congress to pre-allocate about $ 8 billion to deal with the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey in Texas, which authorities said earlier that they will need up to $ 125 billion to deal with the consequences of the disaster. It would seem that America is too far from Ukraine, so what do we need to worry about? Alas, we will be touched in the most direct way. The impact of the financial crisis of 2008 that began back then in the United States, is still fresh in the memory of many Ukrainian businessmen.

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Therefore, we must prepare for the worst, especially it applies to holders of "mattresses with cash," since emerging markets are the first to receive the most powerful blows of the crisis and gloomy prospects. However, our most sensitive to the oncoming danger high-paid officials respond fairly quickly, leaving these days their posts and leaving Ukraine, while others try to acquire "huts" on the sunny side in Switzerland or the seaside in Spain.

In this connection, I tend to think more and more that catastrophes are nothing but an outflow of negative energy. The emergence of such foci was provoked exactly by national elites by conflicts, wars and thoughtless attitude to nature. It turns out that you will reap what you sow earlier. And maybe for this reason the entire Ukraine is now paying the price for the manner of doing business, the arrogance and unprincipledness of "our" first homegrown oligarchs R.Akhmetov, I.Kolomoisky and others – I mean among others, a sharp drop in GDP, (by the way, it is still much lower than the level of 1991, while in Poland over the same period, GDP grew more than 4 times)?

And one more key question: why at the places our oligarchs appear, the competition is inevitably destroyed and then another monopoly is being built? Perhaps, the answer lies in their young years, when the worldview was formed? For example, unlike them, the first American oligarch, John D. Rockefeller, at the age of 16 completed accounting courses and received the position of assistant accountant. He came to work at 6.30 in the morning and left after 10 in the evening, but after three years he invested the accumulated 4000 dollars in a brokerage company.

As you know, Rockefeller did not privatize steel plants and shipping companies, on the contrary, he actually created a business empire from scratch, and it controlled oil refining, railroad and sea transportation in America. He also owned 9 banks and 6 steel plants. John always provided his employees with high salaries and pensions. In his house, he created a model of a market economy, that is, his children had account books and earned as much as they could, and the younger ones were wearing clothes of their elders.

The fifth generation of Rockefellers to date has more than 200 people; the total funds of this family reach 7 billion US dollars. Well, some "our" oligarchs have more capital, Ukraine is richer. But "our" oligarchs stubbornly do not want to conduct a dialogue with centers of power that hate each other. Is it today, among other things, the cause of terrible technological disasters and local wars? Moreover, now nobody in the world cares what will happen to Ukraine, nobody wants excessive hassle and additional external problems.

I want to believe that in the Cabinet and Verkhovna Rada at least several people understand the seriousness of the current high risks for our economy and the state as a whole. After all, if there is a large-scale outflow of capital from the country mainly to offshore, then foreign markets would be closed for borrowing. But the worst thing for us is that today we live in times of activity of some economic "geniuses" in the Cabinet of Ministers and Verkhovna Rada, when the money supply inside the country depends entirely on external factors.

If you look at the assets of the National Bank and monetary aggregates, and then compare them with the volume of loans collected by the state and the corporate sector, for example, we will see an interesting dependence on how the money supply decreased according to market situation and the revenue of exporters. And here, still nothing changes for us. Therefore, a new wave of crisis is inevitable. Although the "geniuses" deny this. They do not even try to somehow mitigate the impact of this new wave of the crisis. Or do they understand that it is too late to do something?

However, whatever happens in the future, we should remain one family in Ukraine. And together we will cope with the future difficulties in social and economic life. We can already do something against the blows of the crisis, but we still have much to learn. As the saying goes, “For those who have eyes to see, let them see, and for those who have ears to hear, let them hear”. But we have a very little time for that.

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