Ukraine will be correlated with Russia, like South Korea with North

Author : GORDON

Respondent : Stanislav Belkovsky

Source :

Political scientist, journalist and TV presenter Stanislav Belkovsky in Gordon show on 112 Ukraine shared his views about Trump and Putin, what Poroshenko would better do today and who will be the next president in Russia
23:33, 15 May 2017

Read original interview at

112 Agency

The Gordon show is on air. Today my guest is a Russian political scientist, journalist and TV presenter Stanislav Belkovsky.

Good evening, Stanislav. I turn to your quote: "When Trump comes to consciousness - on his left shoulder sits Pence, on the right - McCain, and they say:" Write here. "

Belkovsky: Yes, of course. Actually, Russia's illusions about the fact that Trump will be Russia's friend have disappeared as soon as it became clear that Trump is subject to the Republican Party of the United States. Trump is a showman, and he does not remember today what he said yesterday, and tomorrow he will not remember what he is saying today. Therefore, in the political sense, he professes the agenda of the Republican Party, which is much more harshly anti-Russian than the agenda of the Democratic Party, embodied by Obama.

- And what has changed in Russian rhetoric and politics after Trump "looked around" in his place?

- In the Russian - nothing. Because V. Putin wants to show that he, in fact, forces the West to love Russia.

- Is he able to do this?

- No, it does not work out, but he will do it endlessly.

- Before the election, Russian channels very badly spoke about H. Clinton, but praised Trump. It seemed that Trump was a friend of Russia. Is it true?

- No. The purpose of Russia's interference in the election of the US president was to wreak chaos.

 -Was there an intervention?

- Let's just say: I have no proof, but it seems to me that yes, it was. Hackers, hacking sites - all that was a reality. But the goal was not to support Trump, because, to a certain extent, Hilary was a more acceptable candidate for Russia than Trump, because she is predictable. She is an unpleasant candidate, but predictable. Trump is unpredictable, and he now showed this by his attack on Syria.

- Let’s quote Russian poet and singer Vysotsky: "There are not enough real violent people, that's why there are no leaders." Is Trump - riotous?

- No - the showman cannot be violent. The showman always professes the logic of the showman. Obama professed a certain ideology: he was himself. Trump does not profess any ideology: today he professes one thing, tomorrow - another.

- Do Russians really have dirt on Trump?

- I believe that this whole story about the hotel and prostitutes is real. And these data, of course, are recorded by Russian special services.

- But is it compromising?

- I think, for the voters of Trump – it’s not. Trump has been positioned himself this way. He is a real showman who makes the show, and people really wanted to vote for him, because H. Clinton was terribly boring.

- What did the US missile attacks on Syria mean?

- We know that this was invented by I. Trump, Trump's daughter. This is the official version. She was very upset because of the chemical attack that the Assad regime did, and so she told her father to do the opposite. This was proof that Trump is not connected with Russia. Some people have said that he was a Russian spy.

- Did the Russians warn that they would be struck?

- Of course not. The Russians could shoot down these missiles with their air defense weapons, but they understood that this would lead to a world war, and they did not.

- What should we expect from the US in North Korea?

- I think we must wait for a serious war. A few months ago, I thought that Russia should take part in this story: agree with the United States, South Korea, Japan with the silent support of China and change the regime of North Korea. Now the main question about regime change in North Korea is only one - 10 years ago, this regime change was estimated at $ 200 billion, and now the integration of North Korea into the South is estimated at trillion dollars. And South Korea does not want this. Therefore, before you make a decisive blow to North Korea, you need to decide - how to proceed when the regime in North Korea is overthrown?

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- Where is Turkey going?

- Turkey is going to the Islamist regime, or rather, to the personalistic regime of Erdogan. But I'm not sure that this way will be completed quickly and effectively. The referendum itself is on the brink - 50 to 50. Turkey's largest cities voted against the constitutional amendments Erdogan proposed. The influence of Gulen's preacher is very big. Therefore, I believe that this can be a detonator of a coup d'état in Turkey.

- What, in your opinion, is the psychological state of Putin today?

- Putin is only concerned with international military policy. Domestic policy does not interest him, because he believes that the patience of the Russian people is endless, and whatever he does in domestic politics - everything will work. From the point of view of Putin, the resources of the strategic patience of the Russian people will never be exhausted.

- Is he a lonely man?

- Of course.

- What finale awaits him, in your opinion?

- We are all waiting for one final - death. And the question is how we will face the Lord. Putin is a slave in galleys, and he consciously stimulates sanctions, in many ways, to provoke international tension around Russia. He wants to tell his elites that they have earned a lot on him, lived well thanks to him, and "now return my debt, prove that you are loyal to me." He does it. He is in favor of sanctions.

- Are they ready to sacrifice their peace and money?

- No. Absolutely not ready. Especially not ready to sacrifice the health care system for the whole family and the education system for their children.

- Inside the Kremlin elites a deadly confrontation with Putin ripens?

- Yes. Ripe already.

- Can it work like a detonator?

- Theoretically, yes. Only it is not clear how. Putin is constantly changing the guard, updating its leadership. Putin understands that he caused great damage to his own elites through his behavior and, above all, the annexation of the Crimea.

- When he is alone with himself, does he realize that his actions have brought sorrows to hundreds of thousands of people?

- For power, for a lot of power, unfortunately, tens of thousands of lives need to be paid - that Putin would tell you. From his point of view, he saved many more lives than he broke.

- Could it happen that the decisive actions of Western countries will force Putin to change his policy towards Ukraine?

- No. Forcing personally Putin – I don’t think so. When he dies or goes away from power - then yes, something can change, but not with him. Being an epileptoid type of personality, he does not agree to act under conditions of external pressure.

- Tell me, who won at Maidan as a result?

- Ukraine won, despite all the problems, despite the fact that the Ukrainian authorities did not cope with the carte blanche that they received from the Revolution of Dignity, Maidan pointed the way to the post-Soviet countries.

- You said that Putin has an abandoned lover syndrome in relation to Ukraine.

- Yes.

- What three things does Ukraine need to do to stop the war with Russia?

- There is only one thing, and it can be done not by Ukraine, but by God - Putin must leave power. Under Putin, the war will not stop, because for Putin this is a painful point, and he will not stop appealing to it.

Related: OSCE mission recorded increased number of ceasefire regime violations on May 12-13

- And could the US do anything with Putin, so that he will get away from Ukraine?

- And what can they do? Sanctions were imposed not in connection with Ukraine - they were introduced, because Russia violated the rules of the game in Europe. By and large, the West does not care of Ukraine, I’m sorry. For the West it is important that Russia does not violate the rules of the game. And Putin understands this. Therefore, while he is alive - nothing will change. We need fundamental decisions that the conflict with Ukraine must be stopped. But Putin will revenge until the end - as a lover, who was abandoned.

- What are the prospects for the return of Crimea and Donbas?

- There are no prospects. I have already spoken about Crimea, and Donbas is a frozen conflict, as in Transnistria. Therefore, the Ukrainian authorities must admit that the Crimea is lost, and the Donbas is a frozen conflict. But under Poroshenko this will not happen, because he is not able to pronounce such radical things. In his place, I would say that we must admit that we lost Donbas. And we lost it, because we did nothing to integrate it into Ukraine. If Russia knows what to do with the Donbas - let it do, and we will wait 10-15 years, knowing that it is our territory.

- And what to do with people, Ukrainians who love Ukraine, want to live in Ukraine and who have apartments and families there?

- Two options: or Ukrainians arrange an uprising to dislodge the leadership of individual districts - ORDLO. And if they do not, authorities need to offer some compensatory options here - in Kyiv and around it.

- How do you assess the Ukrainian political elite?

- The Ukrainian political elite consists of businessmen. A businessman is a way of thinking. And the elite should consist of politicians. When politicians will replace businessmen in the political elite of Ukraine, then it will be possible to talk about the strategic line of the country's development.

- In your opinion, will the extraordinary parliamentary and presidential elections in Ukraine take place in autumn?

- I do not exclude this.

- You praised P. Poroshenko for stopping his factory in Lipetsk. Were you waiting for this?

- No. I called for this, but I did not expect it. It is such a "sadomasochistic" situation in which the Ukrainian political elite still wants to be recognized by the Russian political elite. Personally by V. Putin. On the one hand, Ukraine is at war with Russia, is its victim, but like every victim, she wants the rapist to recognize her. And when this is over, then 90% of political problems in the relations between Ukraine and Russia will be resolved.

- 3.5 years of chaos, horror, instability. How long will this last, in your opinion?

- Five years.

- After all, will Ukraine break through?

- Yes. You should succeed. And Ukraine will be correlated with Russia, like South and North Korea. It is another matter that a change of generations of political elites must take place for this. It will take five years, I guess.

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