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Ukraine's National Bank predicts decrease of labor migration to Poland in 2019

The reason will be the predicted reduction of the Polish economy's growth rate
17:00, 2 November 2018

Open source

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) predicts that in 2019, the intensity of the labor migration of the Ukrainians to Poland will significantly decrease as it is stated at October "Inflation Report".

The document states that the number of the labor migrants heading from Ukraine to Poland has severely increased since 2013. The main motivation for this is the territorial proximity of Poland and higher wages. Thus, the average income of the Ukrainians working in Poland is higher than that of the people working in Ukraine (USD 390; USD 573 for those working in the construction area).

Related: Ukraine's new struggle for labor and wages unshadowing

'In July 2018, more than half of the migrants got from $674 up to $944, but it was achieved due to a large number of working hours,' the report said.

In 2019, the government expects a decrease of the number of Ukrainians going to Poland for work. The reason for this will be the predicted reduction of the growth rate of the Polish economy.

Related: How much Ukraine loses from labor migration?

'Generally, the decrease of the intensity of the labor migration from Ukraine to Poland is expected due to the deceleration of the economic growth in Poland (according to IMF, up to 3,5 percent in 2019 and 2,8 percent in the medium term), the decrease of the rate of the creation of the new working places and employment growth witnessed by the last polls of the conjuncture,' the NBU experts emphasized.

Moreover, the Polish employers lose interest in the attraction of Ukrainian workers, judging by the reduction of the number of the issued work permissions. The number of requests filed by the citizens of Ukraine has also reduced by 23,5%.

Related: Labor migration: Ukraine suffers from brain drain

The bank noted that since Poland is the main direction of the labor migration for the Ukrainians, the reduction of intensity of migration to this country will lead to the weakening of the labor migration in Ukraine in general in the medium term.

Earlier President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko has urged employers to increase the wages of their workers. According to the information of the president, about 4.5 million people have a minimum wage job.

Related: Labor migration from Ukraine increases: Should it be limited?

Besides, it was reported that Poland anticipates a sudden outflow of the Ukrainian migrant workers to the countries of Western Europe; on the other hand, it is well known that the Polish economy, which is rapidly developing, requires labor force; currently, Ukrainians make a cinsiderable part of that force.

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