The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects the conclusion of the new cooperation program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) soon after the adoption of necessary bills by the parliament as the NBU reported.
“Due to the new program with the IMF, official involvement and preservation of interest of the non-residents to the bonds of domestic government loans, the annual growth of the international reserves of Ukraine will remain, despite the period of time of peak payments for external state debt. In 2020, they will surpass $29 billion and will continue to increase in 2021-2022,” the message said.
The key risk for the implementation of this macro-prediction is the delay of the conclusion of the new cooperation program with the IMF. Besides, the risks remain for the macro-financial stability, first of all, due to the decision of Ukrainian courts on the responsibility and commitments of former owners of insolvent banks before the state.
“The implementation of these risks may worsen rate and inflation expectations and hamper the access to the international markets of the capital in the terms of the necessity of peak debt payments. In October 2019, the prediction of the growth of the international reserves was improved for 2020 from $22,8 billion up to $23,9 billion and for 2021, it is kept at the level of $23 billion,” the NBU explained.