At the same time, the agency predicts an increase in this indicator in 2021 and 2022 by 3.8% and 3.5%, respectively. However, given the ambiguous situation around the coronavirus pandemic and its consequences, these indicators may change significantly.
Fitch expects inflation in Ukraine to approach the National Bank's 5% target by the end of 2020 (it was 2.4% in July) due to higher energy and food prices and a rebound in domestic demand. In 2021, inflation may average 5.3%, and in 2022 - 5.7%.
The agency's analysts believe that after a record decrease in the National Bank's discount rate to 6%, it will no longer be possible to reduce it, which is affected by inflation and an increase in the minimum wage in 2021.
The rating agency also expects that the state budget deficit of Ukraine in 2020 will be 6.5% of GDP, in 2021 - 5.4% of GDP, in 2022 - 4.2% of GDP. At the same time, the total public debt by the end of this year will grow to 57.4% of GDP (65.1% including guaranteed debt) from 44.4% (50.4% including guaranteed) in 2019.
Fitch analysts also believe that in 2022-2023 the national debt will stabilize at 60%, and further our country will reduce this figure.
Earlier EBRD experts predicted a fall in Ukraine's GDP by 4.5% in 2020.