"Unexpected" US geopolitical reversal
The first event is how the United States "helped" Ukraine to stop the construction of Nord Stream-2, which could deprive our country of an annual transit rent in the amount of $ 1.5-3 billion per year, as well as destroy the mechanism of physical extraction of Russian gas. from the Ukrainian GTS for internal needs (now the indicated volumes are closed using a virtual reverse on the border with Slovakia).
The second event is how the United States has "helped" Afghanistan build democracy over the past 20 years by announcing an emergency withdrawal from the country.
Let's make a reservation right away - we have no right to blame the United States for anything, just as representatives of the Afghan comprador elites, who believed in the eternity of the American presence, do not have such a right. Here, as in the well-known proverb: the sheriff does not care about the problems of the Indians. Of course, you can recall the principle of Antoine Saint-Exupéry that they are "responsible for those who have tamed", but with such a code you can end up as a French pilot. On a national scale, especially such as the United States, such principles are inapplicable.
The Americans were in Afghanistan for 20 years and during this time, according to the US Department of Defense, they spent almost $ 800 billion there (excluding 2020-2021). Plus $ 44 billion in direct investment in Afghan infrastructure and economy. Do you think these direct subsidies were made by the Americans after the complete victory over local corruption in Kabul?
It is clear that in the case of Afghanistan we are talking not so much about investments as about total costs, most of which are spent on the war, but this figure is indicative of the overall price tag of the "Afghan project." But even if we compare the $ 44 billion that the United States has allocated for direct assistance to the Afghan economy with similar indicators of assistance to Ukraine, this comparison will not be in our favor. The United States has spent no more than $ 10 billion on "democracy in Ukraine" over 30 years.
And now the main conclusion: having spent $ 850 billion, Washington in a matter of days made a decision to withdraw from Afghanistan, leaving thousands of local residents representing the comprador stratum of society. The speed with which the United States is making geopolitical reversals and its indifference to the fate of its allies and indifference to wasted resources is impressive. And this is a very good lesson for our political "elites". Although we must admit that they, with their infantile "international strategy", are even more "naive" than the local functionaries sitting on suitcases at the Afghan airport...
Pragmatism and rationality are the foundation of world geopolitics. And states such as Ukraine, where infantilism and strategic myopia are the basis, are doomed to be deceived in their overestimated expectations. Back in the spring, the "reversal" of US policy, caused by the long-term strategy of containing China, was obvious to everyone except our government officials, which placed completely false expectations on Biden. The collective West has one common strategic goal - preserving its place in the "golden billion of humanity." And this task includes the option of understanding the fact that the current natural potential of the planet Earth will not be enough for the emergence of the second "golden billion" in Asia.
The current cycle of containing China is calculated for about 10-15 years, until 2050. By that date, China will either have become a technological superpower, as planned in its party strategy or not (as outlined in the informal "party strategies" of the two American parties).
In the current frame of reference, improving the living standards of three Chinese requires a corresponding decrease in the quality of life of one American. As the Chinese philosopher, Lu Ming Fu formulated the "Chinese dream": "China will be rich if the United States wins economically."
For its part, in order to achieve its strategic goals, the United States will be "friends" with the Russian Federation and India against China, as it once "was friends" with China against the USSR (by the way, that cycle was also designed for about 10-15 years).
Ukraine's striving for coloniality
Interaction with China, if we are talking about real cooperation, presupposes aerobatics in terms of geopolitical subjectivity. First of all, we are talking about the rejection of the basic neoliberal model of the Washington consensus with such perversions in our country as "a country in a smartphone." Cooperating with China, it is necessary to adapt the principles of the "Beijing consensus" with its emphasis on innovation, the export model of the economy, the role of the state in minimizing "market failures", otherwise there is a risk of becoming a raw materials colony. And here it does not matter at all whose colony it will be - the West or the East. There is only one result.
In this regard, Ukrainian officials in their "contacts" with Chinese partners are more similar to the characters of the famous American comic strip "Shmoo". As you know, the shmoo looked like a thick bowling pin with legs.
As it is written in Wikipedia, shmoo reproduces asexually, "are pleasant to the taste and tend to be eaten. If a hungry person looks at shmoo, he will gladly sacrifice himself by jumping into a frying pan or into a saucepan ... Their skin can serve as material for shoes ... From their eyes make the best buttons for suspenders, their mustaches make great toothpicks. Simply put, shmoo is the perfect pet. "
Why Ukrainian officials have become "shmoo" for their Chinese partners and really want to be "eaten" is a rhetorical question. The Chinese, unlike Europeans and Americans, do not bother with all kinds of humanitarian "nonsense" a la "anti-corruption court" (since they have been simply shooting their corrupt officials for a long time) and have learned to work closely with the rotten African and Asian elites. True, they have not yet learned how to work with Ukrainians - they take money, but do nothing.
If our government really planned a rapprochement with China, then for this it would be necessary to take several marker actions.
The first marker is participation in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), which was established by China in 2014 as the World Bank's regional frontier.
84 countries (practically all of Asia and the most developed countries of the EU), including Belarus, have become participants in this international financial structure. In this regard, the question is - where is our application to join the AIIB?
Second marker. Switching to Chinese technologies: an agreement with China to modernize the Ukrainian telecommunications system to the 5G level on the Huawei technology platform could bring us up to $ 5 billion at once. And this would be an effective demarche towards the West without violating geopolitical red lines. The second question is where are our negotiations with Huawei?
Real motives of the authorities in cooperation with China
The Big Construction project began to stall in terms of the availability of funding sources, even the marasmic ideas in the form of the issuance of Eurobonds by Ukravtodor under government guarantees for $ 700 million at 6.25% do not help. By the way, this was not thought of even when preparing for Euro 2012. But this money will run out very quickly. "But they were getting rich normally ..." New donors are needed.
China is ready to give money. In the near future, Ukraine can attract several billion dollars of Chinese money for "Big Construction". For China, it is profitable to finance infrastructure projects in other countries. After all, these are tied loans: by taking them, you are obliged to enter into contracting contracts with Chinese companies, buy Chinese equipment, and hire Chinese workers.
That is, the credit multiplier works for the Chinese, not the local economy. For China, there is a double benefit: they owe it a loan, which was used to pay for the services and goods of its own companies.
A classic example is a $ 1 billion loan from China to Montenegro to build a highway to Serbia secured by Montenegrin land and the country's largest Adriatic port. At the same time, an arbitration clause was placed in the text of the agreement that all disputes are considered in Beijing, and the repayment of the loan by a third party is possible only with the consent of China. Now Montenegro is asking Brussels for help to pay off this debt, and Beijing has yet to agree to this scheme. But Montenegro is a NATO member and the closest candidate for EU membership.
In the case of Ukraine, no one in Brussels will give us a billion to pay off debt on Chinese loans. And Beijing will take the most "tasty" as a pledge: land and infrastructure facilities.
According to rumors, this may be one of the largest ports in Odessa. Here, China already has a triple benefit: it should be given a loan with interest, its companies will receive orders, and in the final, it will have the largest port as a sales corridor for Chinese products in the EU (money will not be given back).