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IMF representative Ljungman gives three scenarios for Ukraine's development over next 20 years

Source : 112 Ukraine

The first scenario outlines complete reforming, the second - partial reform and the third - rollback of reforms
09:53, 20 February 2020

Open source

Over the next 20 years, there will be three scenarios of Ukraine's possible development - complete reform, partial reform and rollback of reforms. This forecast was made by Permanent Representative of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Ukraine Gosta Ljungman, Interfax reports.

The first scenario of Ukraine's development envisages complete reforming: overcoming the backwardness of the economy, establishing the land sale market without restrictions, GDP growth by 6% annually. This will allow the population to become richer by 60% in 20 years and reach the present level of Poland by 2038.

The second option outlines partial reform: maintaining the gap in the judiciary, compared to the EU, the land sale market with restrictions, a 4% growth. In this case, the population will be 20% richer.

The third scenario is the rollback of reforms: the absence of a land sale market, growth at a rate of up to 1.5% per year. In this situation, the population will be 20% poorer in 20 years than it is today.

According to Ljungman, the scenario of Ukraine's current pace of reform processes is somewhere between the second and the third options.

Related: Nigerian example for Ukraine: How labor migration can become driver of economic growth?

The IMF representative also noted that Ukraine lags most behind Europe in areas such as the judiciary and the rule of law (level of corruption, protection of property rights), commodity markets (level of competition and regulation) and the financial sector (access to finance, bank sustainability).

As we reported earlier, the International Monetary Fund's expert team will visit Kyiv in order to discuss technical policies aimed at achieving economic growth and stability.

"A team of several IMF experts will visit Kyiv in order to conduct technical discussions of the policy aimed at achieving strong economic growth and providing stability," Gosta Ljungman, Permanent Representative of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Ukraine, stated.

Related: IMF mission to arrive in Ukraine

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