As early as next 2020, the world can begin to change in the most dramatic way. So the expectation of a hot phase of the third world war instills in increasing number of people. Particularly high-profile events of the past week support these very disturbing expectations.
Firstly, on August 2, the United States officially withdrew from the Russian-American Treaty on the Elimination of Medium and Short Range Missiles (INF Treaty), thereby freeing up their hands and lifting the ban on both nuclear superpowers from possessing ground-based missiles with a range of 500 to 5,000 km.
Secondly, on August 19, the United States will strike a financial blow to Russia. As the Financial Times and The New York Times reported on August 2, President Donald Trump signed a decree imposing new sanctions against this country.
The new serious restrictions imply:
1) the United States prevents the provision of any loans, financial or technical assistance by the International Monetary Fund or the World Bank to Russia;
2) a ban on US banks from participating in the primary sale of sovereign debt not in rubles and providing non-ruble loans to the Russian government;
3) toughening the rules for the provision of American goods and technologies to the Russian Federation.
Thirdly, the trade war between America and China has sharply escalated, as on August 1, US President Donald Trump announced the introduction on September 10 this year of a 10% tariff on the remaining $ 300 billion of Chinese imports ($ 250 billion has already been taxed at 25% tariffs).
At the same time, Donald Trump threatened that tariffs could be increased up to 25%, and he stressed that he was not afraid of the stock market falling. The first reaction of world markets to these events is a collapse in oil prices.
Yes, and by the time of Volodymyr Zelensky presidency, Ukraine has turned, in fact, into a completely impoverished and backward country. And how will all these events affect it?
Indeed, the innovative economy and high-tech production in our country have practically ceased to exist - we are already “competing” with African countries in terms of the rate of decline in GDP, now the output of industrial enterprises has fallen to the level of the early 90s. Infrastructure, economic relations, traditional industrial sectors were destroyed.
Only the great and terrible Valeria Gontareva cost our middle class 200 billion hryvnia. Regardless of my attitude to the former head of the NBU Gontareva and the tragic “bank fall”, I must admit that her “reforms” of the banking sector of Ukraine in fact turned out to be an “outstanding” phenomenon of our time, which has no analogues of the plunder of the middle class in the post-Soviet space, and far beyond.
Judge for yourself, on August 1, the newly appointed Managing Director of the Deposit Guarantee Fund for Individuals Svitlana Rekrut honestly stated: "The crisis cost the state, large investors and businesses about 190-200 billion hryvnias." What Valery Gontareva did, as for me, is a dream of scammers and is perceived by them simply as fantasy.
Meanwhile, this situation in the Ukrainian financial market is complicated by the armed conflict in the east of the country. I am convinced that for us educated Ukrainians, a similar economic decline and a large-scale political crisis seem to be a deep national disaster, much more than the state of Ukraine in the early 90s.
And that’s not all, because we still have to feel the real consequences, for example, of a new round of “Ukrainian Gate” in the USA. The fact is that in America enough authoritative votes have been accumulated to revise relations with the corrupt Ukrainian elite.
And this process can go much faster as it approaches the climax of the fierce presidential race in the United States, in which the two main rivals, Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden, have already been identified.
I think that already in America and in Ukraine, authorities are pretty tired, or rather already disgusted by the meaning of Petro Poroshenko’s actions in relations with the United States, it was extremely simple, they say. Do not even bring us closer to your high technological and socio-economic level, just take us to the minimum content in order to stick to at least a piece of your pie.
Tell me, who in the world will respect such beggar politicians, accustomed to beg, beg and beg, while plundering the state treasury? What should the team of President Zelensky do now? I hope that our young talents in politics will understand that, first of all, the economic relations between the USA and Ukraine will depend on Ukraine.
Finally, it is time to create our own agenda, to create our own political and economic alliances in the interests of Ukraine. So, how could the command of President Zelensky save the state?
Reflecting on this key issue, I want to recall the economic forecasts of the outstanding prophet Nikolai Kondratyev. Let me remind you, the first thing that the scientist Kondratyev paid attention to was that on the diagram he constructed as a result of calculations, not only crises of short and medium waves were clearly visible, but also waves of long crises that had a tremendous impact on various societies.
The scientist’s calculations showed that the most powerful and crushing ones are long waves of crises that occur once every several decades. The destruction they make in the economy is like an ocean storm. And in this case, the economies of countries collapse, like ships under the blow of the ninth shaft. By extending his chart a little further, Kondratyev was able to predict the exact date of the Great Depression in the United States.
But if we extend his diagram even further and apply it to the entire XX century and the beginning of the XXI century, we will also receive systemic crises that the world economy was experiencing in the early 70s (in 1971, US President Richard Nixon abolished the gold standard, completely resetting any provision of the American dollar, and all world currencies - historians called it the Nixon shock), and an accurate indication of the expected crisis in the early 20s of this XXI century.
And yet, economists are now continuing discussions about where in the crisis wave the world is. But no one doubts that the current crisis is precisely more protracted than the rest. Knowing this, it can be predicted that in the 20s of the current XXI century the number of armed conflicts in the world will increase significantly.
During the crisis, the economic prophet Kondratyev noted, society is aggressively seeking a way out of the impasse. Will Ukraine find a sure and peaceful way out of the impasse in this global turbulence?