The substantial delay of the provision of Ukraine with the next tranche from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is the main risk to the financial stability as it is stated at the report of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
‘The key micro-financial risk for the financial stability in the near years is the stop of the cooperation with the IMF. The successful refunding of the sovereign and government-backed debt in the sum of 20 billion dollars in 2018-2020 is unlikely’, the NBU noted.
Moreover, the NBU emphasized that Ukraine should start the negotiations on the launch of the new program of the cooperation with the IMF until the finish of the current program in the beginning of 2019.
The loan program in the amount of 17.01 billion dollars was approved by IMF for Ukraine in April 2014 and the first stand by tranche in the amount of 3.19 billion dollars was allocated in May 2014.
The EFF program was opened in March 2015 and it is aimed for four years. The total amount of the program is 17.11 billion dollars. The first tranche of five billion dollars provided the review of the program in every three months. Three tranches of 1.63 billion dollars were allocated in 2015 and the tranches in 2016-2018 should be allocated every three months in the amount of 0.61 billion dollars.
Ukraine fulfilled the major part of the commitments agreed with the EU. However, it did not succeed to fulfill four demands, particularly to remove the ban on the export of the wood-billet the launch of the automatic check of the e-declaration, the law on the credit register of the NBU and check of the information on the eligible beneficiary owners of the companies.