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2020 forecast: Which economies will grow and which will fall?

Author : 112.ua News Agency

Source : 112 Ukraine

Every economy is growing and there is no reason to expect a recession in the next two years, despite numerous vague predictions about this in some segments of financial media.
22:07, 14 January 2020

bnews.kz

The World Bank published its report entitled “Global Economic Perspectives for 2020” on Wednesday, January 8.

According to its data, every economy is growing, with the exception of Argentina, Iran and some of the poorest countries such as Haiti. (And Venezuela did not appear on the World Bank map at all.)

The economy of Argentina is expected to "shrink" by 1.3%, while Haiti will "lose weight" by 1.4%. Iran's outlook is rated as zero growth (0%), although that outlook is likely to change after President Trump announced tougher sanctions against this ancient Persian nation on Wednesday.

US officials are expected to meet with their European counterparts to discuss how Iran can be returned to the negotiating table on the issue of an already destroyed "nuclear deal."

One practical conclusion can be drawn from the annual report presented to us: everything is growing and there is no reason to expect a recession in the next two years, despite numerous vague predictions about this in some segments of financial media.

The overall global growth for 2020 is forecasted at 2.4%, but this is still growth compared to 2.4% - the expected result for the past 2019.

The World Bank reports that global growth could increase to 2.6% in 2021, and up to 2.7% in 2022.

Meanwhile, the so-called emerging markets can expect that their deals in the new year will go better than in the past, especially for Brazil and Russia.

Emerging markets are hoping to reach a 4.1% average GDP growth for 2020 - an improvement regarding 3.5% last year. The growth of 4.3% is forecasted for the next 2021 year. It's not bad.

Among the BRICS countries (the five most promising "emerging markets" in the world, which are home to 40 percent of people — Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) the situation is as follows. China will not exceed the top growth bar of 6 percent in the next three years, but there is nothing to be surprised at.

Beijing itself predicts just such a growth, no more. The World Bank promises China 5.9% growth this year.

According to the World Bank report, globally, economic growth has slowed even more decline than expected — all from declining domestic demand and growing tensions in international trade.

Trade uncertainty and higher tariffs have had a depressing effect on corporate investor sentiment in 2019.

Industrial production growth has fallen to the lowest pace over many years, and trade flows have significantly decreased.

Nevertheless, the next three years of the reign of Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaru should be successful - at least from an economic point of view.

Related: Ukraine's economy to see up to 3.7-percent growth in 2020, - World Bank

GDP growth in his country will exceed the corresponding levels in the United States - and this is the first time in many years. The growth of Brazilian GDP will reach 2% this year, 2.5% next year and stay at 2.4% in 2022 - if everything goes according to the plan.

Some softening of lending conditions, as well as progress in reforms - all these changes are starting to work for growth in Brazil.

In Russia, growth is projected at 1.6% in 2020, and will remain at 1.8% over the next two years.

Low interest rates and large infrastructure projects (the so-called "national projects") help to improve the overall picture of growth in Russia, although US sanctions and depressing demographics spoil the general goodness.

Well, the last: among the four largest "emerging markets" India stands out on the positive side, its growth this year is expected to reach 5.8%. This is an improvement over the 5 percent forecast that sounded at the beginning of 2019.

This country is expected to grow over the next two years. Success requires one condition: the local population in India must “accelerate” the economy by spending money on consumption.

The key risks for India are a sharper than expected decline in growth among its trading partners, a possible new aggravation of geopolitical tensions with Pakistan. The bad news may be the failure to reorganize state banks.

These state-owned banks incurred trouble, lending to wasteful lovers of a sweet life like the billionaire Vijay Mallya. This billionaire was on the Forbes list, and the state banks that lent him money got into a very unpleasant situation because of him.

Meanwhile, the US economy is slowing down, but it is still growing, increasing in size.

The productive, non-resource sector of this economy remains weak - perhaps due to trade problems with China. In addition, support came from tax cuts and a reduction in the administrative press - measures taken in the first two years of Trump's rule.

But this beneficial effect is expected to be completely depleted this year and will no longer be a growth factor. This is how World Bank economists write in their report.

And although all the economies of the world today are in a growth mode, some of these economies do not grow as fast as they did in 2019, although China stands out in a positive sense here.

The only developing countries that the World Bank classifies as developing more slowly in 2020 than in 2019 are Poland and Pakistan.

Other developing countries that are not on the top list of "emerging markets", primarily Vietnam - all of them will also grow in 2020 more slowly than before. Their expected growth is 6.8% - and this is against 6.5% in 2019.

The USA, Japan, and also the countries of the Eurozone will also grow more slowly this year.

Related: Ukraine enters top five of world's chicken meat exporters, - Economy Minister

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