Volodymyr Zelensky, who, according to the latest social surveys, has higher chances than his opponent Petro Poroshenko to head the Presidential Administration, would be forced to get along with the Verkhovna Rada. At least until the fall, he would not have his own faction in the parliament. But Ukrainian current MPs can side with the winner very quickly. 112.ua has found out whether the Verkhovna Rada is ready to be reformatted under president Zelensky.
After the first round of elections, the Verkhovna Rada has created an interfactional association “For the next president of Ukraine, V. Zelensky.” But officially, so far only one person has entered into its composition – Vitaliy Kupriy. According to him, it is planned to attract up to 10 people to the union, probably from the Bloc of Petro Poroshenko (BPP) and the National Front factions. Zelensky’s headquarters are counting on the support of more than 226 parliamentarians from the majority and the opposition. The BPP faction does not share the competitor’s optimism. One of the MPs from the BPP predicts that if Zelensky wins, he will receive an absolutely uncontrollable parliament and government. According to his calculations, with the most favorable scenario, the newly-elected head of the state will be able to collect about 160 votes for his bills.
Petro Poroshenko, in turn, is not idle. On April 15, he met with almost all the deputies of his faction and tried to persuade them that he still has some chances for the victory.
And after the results of a devastating poll (according to the internal social surveys, Zelensky’s superiority over the incumbent head of state reaches 20%, and the Rating group assures that the gap among them is 40%) the pro-presidential faction can become an active donor to the new majority. Our sources in the BPP faction predict that from 30% to 50% of their members would side Zelensky. Our interlocutors in Zelensky’s headquarters expect 60% of the pro-presidential faction to support them.
Another coalition faction, National Front, also bets on Zelensky. According to 112.ua sources in the faction, the group is oriented on Ukraine’s Interior Minister Arsen Avakov. This minister is already drifting towards Zelensky. The Samopomich faction carefully avoids the issue of cooperation with the team of Volodymyr Zelensky. Recently, leader of the Samopomich party Andriy Sadovyi announced the possible withdrawal of some MPs.
Yulia Tymoshenko’s Batkivshchyna party does not exclude the possibility of cooperation with Zelensky. “If Zelensky’s ideas comply with the party’s programmatic principles, we are ready to support him,” MP from Batkivshchyna Serhiy Vlasenko stated.
Out interlocutors expect that the antagonism between “president-reformer” vs. “bad parliament” will add points to Zelensky’s Servant of the People party, which is the leader in sociological polls for parliamentary elections. By the way, as Zelensky’s headquarters assured, some MPs have already addressed them with “suitcases of money for a place in the top thirty of the list.”
Another version of the “domestication” of the parliament, which is discussed on the sidelines, is the threat of early parliamentary elections after the “dissolvement of the coalition.” At the same time, there is practically no time to implement this plan in a legal way. According to the law, the parliament elected in early elections cannot be dissolved in the last six months of office. Thus, the decree on the dissolution of parliament should be issued no later than May 27.
In addition, even in the case of coalition dissolution, parliamentarians have a month to form a new coalition, and the next plenary week will begin on April 23, but the official election results should be established at the end of the month. That is, until May 27, the new president will not have grounds for parliament’s resignation yet, and after May 27, he will not have such an opportunity.
Plan for Petro Poroshenko is simple: by the autumn the euphoria of the showman as a president will be tempered under the pressure of economic and political challenges.